Jordan’s FR Forecast

With the patrol season wrapping up, ironically, it’s finally snowing.  It just snowed, and more is forecasted!  A large system to our north will result in some snow on Friday.  Here are the model solutions: 9” – WRF Model 3” – Canadian, Icon, UK Met, and European Model 1” – American Model Saturday looks to be partly cloudy with highs in the mid to upper thirties.  Sunday looks to be mostly sunny with highs reaching almost 50 degrees. Then, a wildly confusing and complicated series of systems look to produce snow in the time frame of Wednesday April 22 to Friday April 25.  Here are the model solutions (and the European one is not a typo): 22” – European Model 5” – Icon Model 3” – American Model 2” – Canadian Model Retrospective Discussion: Without Eldora’s snowcam, this should be taken with a large grain of salt, but it looks like 3-4” probably fell at the Lake Eldora Snotel from the Tuesday/Wednesday system.  If correct, at the beginning of this week, the American, European, Icon, Peaks, and UK Met Models were all on the money, and the Canadian and WRF Models were a bit high.  As for last week’s solution’s of this storm, the European Model was too high, the American Model was too low, and the Canadian Model was on the money. Cheers. -Jordan (Wednesday 4/15/26 afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

As our backcountry patrol season winds down, happily, there’s actually some interesting weather to write about.  First, a weak low-pressure system from the west southwest looks to bring snow to our patrol zone Tuesday midday to Wednesday midday.  Here are the model forecasts: 6” – Canadian and WRF Models 4” – European and American Models 3” – Icon and UK Met Models Then, a colder system from the west northwest looks to bring snow on Friday.  Here are the model forecasts: 11” – UK Met Model 7” – Canadian Model 5” – European Model 4” – Icon Model 1” – American Model Saturday will be relatively cold, with the high below freezing.  Sunday looks to return to more warmth and sun.  And because it’s our patrol zone, both weekend days will likely be at least somewhat windy. Retrospective Discussion: Just flakes on Saturday, so the Canadian Model was way too optimistic, and the American, European, and Peaks Models were sadly accurate.  And considering the skies are mostly blue over the mountains right now, I’m going to go ahead and guess that the American, Canadian, and Peaks models calling for snow today was too optimistic, and the European Model sadly was accurate predicting no snow. Cheers. -Jordan (Monday 4/13/26 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

Highs in the mid to upper 40s this weekend.  Saturday will be cloudy and a bit warmer.  Sunday will have some, but fewer, clouds and more winds.  If you believe the Canadian Model, there will be 3” of snow on Saturday evening.  The European Model is predicting rain, and the American Model is predicting nothing.  Early next week should have light snow from Monday to Wednesday.  8” per the European Model, 3” per the Canadian Model, and 1” per the American Model.  Cheers. -Jordan (Wednesday 4/8/26 afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

Warm days, but at least close to freezing (or freezing) nights for much of this week.  The European and American models are each calling for less than an inch of snow during the week, and the Canadian Model isn’t calling for any snow.  Then, for this weekend, the temperatures remain similar, but a disorganized system moves in from the west southwest on Saturday, with possible weak upslope.  The Canadian Model is predicting 4”, while the European and American Models are not predicting snow.  Then, on Monday, in the second wave of the same system, both the American and Canadian Models are calling for 2”, while the European Model isn’t calling for anything.  Retrospective Discussion: While some other places in Colorado picked up a foot plus in the last two systems, sadly we got skunked, with 1” of snow on Wednesday and 1” of snow on Friday.  So, a week out, the Canadian Model was close on the first system, and the American and Canadian Models were close on the second system, while the European Model was too optimistic on the first system and way too optimistic on the second system.   Half a week out, the UK Met and Canadian Models were too optimistic on the first system, the European and Icon Models were close, and the American and Peaks Models were right on.  On the second system, the American Model was spot on, the UK Met, Peaks, and European Models were too high, the Icon Model was way too high, and the Canadian Model was silly high.  And, once the first system arrived, the American, WRF, and Peaks Models were right on, and the Canadian and European Models were too high on the first system – and the second system the Canadian, American, and European Models were right on, the Peaks Model was a bit high, and the WRF Model was too high. Cheers. -Jordan (Sunday 4/5/26 evening) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

The current storm, which includes a weak low pressure system, will finish by Thursday afternoon.  So far, there has been no snow accumulation.  Here are the model forecasts: 3” – Canadian Model 2” – European Model 1” – American and WRF Models After a brief break, a stronger system will pass to our north on Friday into Saturday morning, which hopefully will result in some snow here.  Here are the model forecasts: 4” – WRF Model 1” – Canadian, American, and European Models Saturday will be decreasing snow and clouds, and sunny by afternoon with highs around 40.  Sunday is sunny and again way too warm with highs in the upper 40s.  The next snowstorm looks to come from the north northwest and pass through our patrol zone between next Wednesday and Friday.  Here are the model forecasts for that system: 5” – American Model 3” – Canadian Model 2” – European Model Cheers. -Jordan (Wednesday 4/1/26 Afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.