Jordan’s FR Forecast

What a season!  Who would have guessed in November or December that by late March we would have an above average season?  This winter was really a story of three big storms – one in early December (twenty inches), one in mid-January (four feet), and one in mid-March (four feet).  While November was an awful disappointment, and there were slow times in December, February, and April, it was still a great year.  January was a strong month – nothing wrong with a four-foot dump right in the middle of it, and March, a typically snowy month, was 160% of already outsized average.  That’s huge!  Forecasting was a challenge considering a majority of our total snowfall came in three bursts, all three of which the models underpredicted.  And, none of the three big storms followed the classic pattern of a huge dump for our patrol region (i.e., a closed or cut-off low over the Four Corners slowly moving east northeast).  Moreover, the usual first place winner for our patrol zone among the models, the Canadian Model, performed dismally this year.  And the American Model, which has my favorite interface, likewise performing rather poorly.  I’m reminded of the old joke – don’t give weather forecasters a hard time, they successfully predicted nine out of the last four storms. Adding up the performance of eight models I looked at this winter, the best model by a hair was the WRF Model, with a 44% accuracy percentage, and being wildly off only 25% of the time.  A close second was the UK Met Model, also with a 44% accuracy percentage, and being wildly off (usually way too pessimistic) 35% of the time.  The worst model was the NAM, 60% of the time being wildly too pessimistic, and only predicting one snowfall correctly the entire winter.  Overall, I’d rank the models this year in the following order: WRF, UKMet, European, Icon, American, RDPS, Canadian, and NAM. Have a great summer everyone!  The above average March snowpack should hopefully translate into a good late season ski conditions in the backcountry.  Hope to see some of you at this Saturday’s Mt. Russel ski day.  All the best, and here’s for hoping for at least one more snowstorm before July. -Jordan (Monday 6/3/24 Afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.  If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.

April is ending with a bang.  After a few potential inches of snow on Thursday night, a powerful trough with an associated low pressure system from the west northwest descends on our patrol zone Friday evening to Sunday morning.  Model solutions seem to be zeroing in on about a foot of new snow, but a few models are more optimistic and a few models are less optimistic than that.  Considering the time of year, trying to gauge the actual snowfall after this system may be a challenge. Here are the various model forecasts for snow totals from Thursday through Sunday: 28” – American Model 18” – UK Met Model 15” – Icon Model 14” – Canadian Model 10” – RDPS Model 9” – European and WRF Models 6” – NAM Model Cheers. -Jordan (Thursday 4/25/24 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.  If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.

While this is the last forecast for the call, I’ll continue to post various forecasts on the website if we have any major storms in the next few weeks.  Then I’ll do a wrap up forecast at the end of the season both on the season and on what I learned about the various weather models from this year. We’re currently in a storm system, but the models have no idea what’s going on.  If you don’t believe me, here are the various snow total forecasts from Thursday evening to Saturday morning. 26” – Canadian Model 16” – RDPS Model 14” – American Model 11” – European Model 10” – Icon Model 4” – NAM Model 2” – UK Met Model So Saturday may be an amazing powder day, or it may be dust on crust.  That said, with highs getting into the low 40s and clouds clearing by Saturday afternoon, the morning will ride better than the afternoon if we get more than a couple of inches of snow.  Sunday will be sunny and even warmer.  Next week looks to be warm and pleasant.  There may be another round of snow around next weekend, but that’s off in forecast fairyland. Cheers. -Jordan (Thursday 4/18/24 Evening) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.  If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.

After a week of warm, we’re back in a snowy period again with over half a foot last night, and more on the way.  Wednesday will be warm, but starting Wednesday night, a stream of moisture from the west northwest will bring us snow through Saturday.  Here are the model forecasts for this three-day storm: 14” – American and Canadian Models 11” – European Model 9” – UKMet Model 3” – Icon Model Spring looks to return next week, with Sunday being the transition day between snow and Spring. Retrospective Discussion: As of 8 am this morning, Eldora has picked up 7” of snow in this storm, so the European and UK Met Models were right on the money, with the Icon model being way too high, and the American and Canadian Models being definitely too low. Cheers. -Jordan (Tuesday 4/16/24 Morning)

We are currently under a ridge of high pressure.  Highs will be near 50 on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, with low temperatures just barely getting below freezing.  Winds don’t look to be bad this weekend either (but that’s relative to normal for our patrol zone, not relative to normal elsewhere). On Monday, a low-pressure system passes over us, generating some snow and colder temperatures.  The models are still not at all in agreement, but here are the model forecasts for Monday and Tuesday: 15” – Icon Model 6” – European and UK Met Models 3” – Canadian and American Models Then the models diverge even more for what will happen for the rest of the week.  Some models are seeing a real storm next Thursday through Saturday, while others are not.  Here are the forecasts: 14” – American Model 10” – European Model 1” – Canadian Model So, if everything goes right, we’re looking at 2½ feet or more, and if everything goes wrong, we’re looking at a third of a foot or less.  Fingers’ crossed for more snow as that means a better some ski season. -Jordan (Thursday 4/11/24 afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.  If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.