• Tuesday will be warm and sunny, and then a system from the southwest will drop a bit of snow on our patrol zone on Wednesday evening / Thursday morning.  Here are the model snow forecasts: 4” – European Model 3” – Canadian Model 1” – American Model Then, temperatures warm, and both Saturday and Sunday look to be seasonally mild, mostly sunny, with our typical westerly winds.  The next storm looks to come in next Monday/Tuesday, with moisture from both the northwest and southwest.  Here are the model snow forecasts: 9” – American Model 6” – Canadian and European Models The American and European Models follow up that system with more snow next week, while the Canadian Model does not. Retrospective Discussion: Yet again, the Friday storm outperformed the models.  Eldora picked up 11”, so the WRF Model was the closest at 8”, the Canadian Model was second at 7”, and the other models predicted less than half the storm (the American, European, and NAM Models), with the RDPS predicting less than one third of the storm.  While we’re on a streak of the storms being larger than predicted, let’s not lose sight of the fact that we’re just having an average snow year (it’s just that the models are consistently predicting less snow).  The three Snotels in our patrol zone (Lake Eldora, University Camp, and Niwot) are at 93%, 93%, and 101%, respectively.  Cheers. -Jordan (Tuesday 2/20/24 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.  If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.

  • The Eldora Snow Cam shows as of this (Friday) morning that we’ve picked up 6” over the last few days, more than expected.  It’s great.  The storm continues today.  Here are the various model forecasts from 6 am Friday to Saturday morning: 8” – WRF Model 7” – Canadian Model 5” – American and European Model 4” – NAM Model 3” – RDPS Model The sun should come out by Saturday afternoon with highs in the 20s, and Sunday will be partly cloudy with highs around 30, and perhaps a dusting to one inch of new snow in the afternoon. A system from our west may or may not produce more snow in our patrol zone around perhaps next Thursday.  Here are the current model forecasts for that system: 8” – Canadian Model 2” – European Model Dusting – American Model Cheers. Retrospective Discussion: As noted above, we’ve gotten 6” so far this week, which is better than the two most optimistic models at the beginning of the week, the Canadian and RDPS, which both predicted 4”.  The other models (American, UK Met, European, NAM, and WRF) all called for an inch or less, and so (happily) got this forecast completely wrong.  -Jordan (Friday 2/16/24 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.  If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.

  • Looks like we’ll have some light snow tomorrow and Thursday.  Here are the model snow forecasts: 4” – Canadian and RDPS Models 1” – American, UK Met, and European Models Dusting – NAM and WRF Models Then, a storm coming in from the west looks to provide a little more snow on Friday.  A weak upslope will hopefully develop.  This storm is on the edge of the short term models, and there’s lots of uncertainty between them (i.e., RDPS is bullish, NAM and WRF are not).  Of the medium term models that predict the entire storm, here are the model snow forecasts: 8” – Canadian Model 4” – American Model 3” – European Model 2” – UK Met Model After this storm passes, conditions look to be partially to mostly sunny.  Sunday looks to be relatively warm.  Typical westerly winds look likely both weekend days.  Next week we may have snow and a lot of wind around Monday (1” per the Canadian Model and a dusting per the American Model), and then another shot of snow around perhaps Thursday February 22. Cheers. -Jordan (Tuesday 2/13/24 Afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.  If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.

  • Apologies for the short forecast.  It looks like we’ll have small upslope snow on Saturday.  Here are the model forecasts: 4” – American Model 3” – WRF Model 1” – Canadian Model Saturday winds will be from the east.  Sunday winds will be stronger and from the northwest.  Sunday will be warmer than Saturday.  Cheers. Retrospective Discussion: Eldora picked up 4”, so the European Model was closest, with the UK Model too low, and the Canadian and American Models way too low. -Jordan (Friday 2/9/24 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.  If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.

  • The brunt of the storms currently pounding the Pacific Coast currently look to likely stay to our west, north, and south once they move inland.  It’s unusual to say that heading nearly any direction will mean snow, but unfortunately that’s likely true over the next week.  As such, while we’ll likely get snow from Wednesday to Sunday, the totals will unfortunately not be huge.  The first wave of snow will be on Wednesday and Thursday, and here are the model forecasts for our patrol zone: 3” – European Model 2” – UK Met Model 1” – Canadian and American Models The second wave will likely be on Friday through Sunday.  Here are the model forecasts: 4” – Canadian Model 2” – American and UK Met Models 1” – European Model Fingers crossed the models are wrong and we end up getting more snow. Retrospective Discussion: Unfortunately, Eldora only picked up 5” of snow from the storm, much less than half as much than my house in Golden or Winter Park – it seems to have snowed everywhere else.  Five days away, the UK Met Model his it dead on, with the American Model too high, and the European and Canadian Models way too high.  Two days away, the American, UK Met, RDPS, and WRF Models were all basically spot on, with the NAM Model too high, and the Canadian and European Models way too high.  -Jordan (Monday 2/5/24 Evening) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.  If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.