April is ending with a bang. After a few potential inches of snow on Thursday night, a powerful trough with an associated low pressure system from the west northwest descends on our patrol zone Friday evening to Sunday morning. Model solutions seem to be zeroing in on about a foot of new snow, but a few models are more optimistic and a few models are less optimistic than that. Considering the time of year, trying to gauge the actual snowfall after this system may be a challenge.
Here are the various model forecasts for snow totals from Thursday through Sunday:
28” – American Model
18” – UK Met Model
15” – Icon Model
14” – Canadian Model
10” – RDPS Model
9” – European and WRF Models
6” – NAM Model
Cheers.
-Jordan (Thursday 4/25/24 morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
