We are currently under a ridge of high pressure. Highs will be near 50 on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, with low temperatures just barely getting below freezing. Winds don’t look to be bad this weekend either (but that’s relative to normal for our patrol zone, not relative to normal elsewhere).
On Monday, a low-pressure system passes over us, generating some snow and colder temperatures. The models are still not at all in agreement, but here are the model forecasts for Monday and Tuesday:
15” – Icon Model
6” – European and UK Met Models
3” – Canadian and American Models
Then the models diverge even more for what will happen for the rest of the week. Some models are seeing a real storm next Thursday through Saturday, while others are not. Here are the forecasts:
14” – American Model
10” – European Model
1” – Canadian Model
So, if everything goes right, we’re looking at 2½ feet or more, and if everything goes wrong, we’re looking at a third of a foot or less. Fingers’ crossed for more snow as that means a better some ski season.
-Jordan (Thursday 4/11/24 afternoon)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
