While this is the last forecast for the call, I’ll continue to post various forecasts on the website if we have any major storms in the next few weeks. Then I’ll do a wrap up forecast at the end of the season both on the season and on what I learned about the various weather models from this year.
We’re currently in a storm system, but the models have no idea what’s going on. If you don’t believe me, here are the various snow total forecasts from Thursday evening to Saturday morning.
26” – Canadian Model
16” – RDPS Model
14” – American Model
11” – European Model
10” – Icon Model
4” – NAM Model
2” – UK Met Model
So Saturday may be an amazing powder day, or it may be dust on crust. That said, with highs getting into the low 40s and clouds clearing by Saturday afternoon, the morning will ride better than the afternoon if we get more than a couple of inches of snow.
Sunday will be sunny and even warmer.
Next week looks to be warm and pleasant. There may be another round of snow around next weekend, but that’s off in forecast fairyland.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Thursday 4/18/24 Evening)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
