Jordan’s FR Forecast

A system from the southwest looks likely to go a bit too far south to solidly hit our patrol zone on Thursday (but should bring some much needed moisture to the San Juans, Sangres, etc.).  Likewise, a system from the west northwest looks to head towards our patrol zone around Friday, but it looks to be mostly spillover.  Here are the model solutions from total snowfall from both systems: 10” – American and UK Met Models 6” – WRF and Icon Models 3” – European Model 2” – Canadian Model This weekend looks to be partly cloudy, with highs in the 20s on Saturday and in the 30s on Sunday.  Saturday looks to be windier, but it’s our patrol zone, so it’s always windy.  Retrospective Discussion: Bad news then good news.  The snow late last week disappointed with only ½”, so the American and European Models were spot on, and the Canadian and WRF Models were too high.  The snow last night, however, overdelivered, which is great.  6” fell on the Eldora Snow Cam Snow Stake, much more than the Canadian Model predicted, and a dozen times more than the American and European Model predictions. I’ll be travelling for a bit, so apologies that it’ll be a bit until my next forecast.  Cheers. -Jordan (Tuesday 1/6/26 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

Happy New Year!  There’ll be a bit of spillover snow on Thursday afternoon to Friday morning.  Here are the model forecasts: 2” – Canadian and WRF Models ½” – American and European Models This weekend looks to be mostly sunny with some high clouds, with highs in the mid to upper 30s.  Sunday looks to be the windier day, but it’s our patrol zone, so there’ll be winds on Saturday too.  There may be a shot of snow on Monday or Tuesday.  Here are the model solutions: 2” – Canadian Model ½” – American and European Models There may be other small snowfalls later next week too. -Jordan (Thursday 1/1/26 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

We’re under a ridge of high pressure this week, so weather for the first half of this week will be boring, with slowly warming temperatures and lots of sun.  Then, a system comes in from the southwest late Wednesday bringing some clouds for the rest of the week, but the snow mostly peters out before it reaches our patrol zone.  Snow, if we get any, is likely to fall between Thursday evening and Saturday, and here are the model forecasts: 1” – Canadian and European Models 1/3” – American Model The weekend looks to be a mix of sun and clouds, with light snow, the typical winds, and highs somewhere between freezing and the low 40s (depending upon the model solution).  Early next week a storm from the west looks to reach our patrol zone, but it also looks to be mostly dissipated by the time it makes it to our patrol zone.  Here are the model solutions for snow from Monday to Wednesday of next week: 3” – Canadian Model 2” – European Model 1” – American Model Retrospective Discussion: Finally, some snow!  Eldora picked up about 6”, and looking at the crazy storm numbers (Winter Park got a foot while A-Basin got an inch), most of the snow must have been fueled by the jet streak.  Two days beforehand, the Canadian, Icon, and WRF Models were spot-on, while the American and European Models predicted 2/3 of what we got, and the UK Met, Nam, and RDPS models predicted only half of what we got.  Five days beforehand, the Canadian Model was at least predicting it somewhat, predicting half of what we got, while the European and American Models had only been predicting an inch.  Let’s hope the forecasts I wrote about above similarly are way underestimating the upcoming snow. Cheers. -Jordan (Monday 12/29 Morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

A large low pressure currently centered at the intersection of California, Oregon, and the Pacific Ocean looks to make it to our patrol zone Saturday night.  Saturday morning looks to start sunny with strong winds, but as the system comes in the skies will obviously get cloudy and the wind speed may drop somewhat in the afternoon. Sunday looks colder, obviously cloudy, and only moderate winds (potentially even light and from the eastern half of the compass Sunday morning).  While much of the storm is spillover (which is not very productive for our patrol zone), there is a tiny bit of upslope possible, thus the possible easterly morning winds (which often can be very productive for our patrol zone, but this one isn’t big enough), and some of the storm may get a jet streak assist (which also often can be very productive for our patrol zone, but is very difficult to forecast).  Temperatures also look to fall with this storm (which is good).  Here are the model solutions for snow on Saturday to Sunday: 6” – Canadian, Icon, and WRF Models 4” – American and European Models 3” – UK Met, NAM, and RDPS Models The next system likely to hit our patrol zone is next weekend (January 3-4), which will come from the west southwest.  As of now, the European Model is only calling for 2”, so as of now, it doesn’t look to promising.  Regardless, it’s nice to have snow, even if not much, in the forecast.  Cheers, and Merry Christmas. -Jordan (12/25/25 afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

A system from the southwest pushes up towards the four-corners this week, but it just doesn’t look to have enough power to make it even close to our patrol zone.  Then, maybe the large low pressure that looks to be great for Tahoe will just barely spillover into our patrol zone over the weekend.  Here are the model snowfall solutions for Friday to Saturday: 3” – Canadian Model 1” – European and American Models At least temperatures will be a bit colder this weekend, with highs at or just below freezing both weekend days.  Sunday looks to have more sun.  I’d say it looks to be windy, but that’s a given.  Gazing into forecast fairyland, the next chance for meaningful snow looks to arrive around perhaps January 2.  Sheesh.  Retrospective Discussion: The predicted Saturday snow was a bust, with only a dusting, so the American Model wasn’t too far off, while the Canadian and WRF Models sadly were way too optimistic calling for 3”. Happy holidays.  Think snow.  This snow drought can’t last forever, and I’m asking Santa for snow. -Jordan (Monday 12/22/25 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.