Jordan’s FR Forecast

A system to our north looks to bring a small snowfall to our backcountry patrol zone on Tuesday.  Here are the model forecasts: 3” – European and WRF Models 2” – American Model 0” – Canadian Model Then, there’ll be a weak low pressure over Colorado on Friday, bringing potentially a touch of upslope snow.  Here are the model forecasts: 8” – Canadian Model 5” – European Model 4” – American Model Highs in the low 30s on Saturday with decreasing clouds, and sunny on Sunday with highs in the upper 30s. Retrospective Discussion: Sadly, over the weekend we only got a dusting, with the European Model getting it right, the Canadian and Peak Models a little too high, and WRF and American Model being too high. Cheers. -Jordan (Monday 3/2/26 Afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

Highs this weekend are in the low 40s, with increasing clouds on Saturday.  Clouds and a bit of snow on Sunday.  Here are the model forecasts for Sunday: 3” – WRF Model 2” – American Model 1” – Canadian Model Dusting – European Model There’ll be a closed low that may impact our patrol zone on Tuesday.  Take these numbers with a huge grain of salt (could be much higher or nothing), but here are the model predictions: 7” – American and Canadian Model 4” – European Model Retrospective Discussion: Eldora got 9” of heavy snow, which is great.  So European Model was spot on, with the UK Met just a bit high and Icon just a bit low.  Canadian was low, American, Peaks, and WRF Model were crazy low. Cheers. -Jordan (Thursday 2/26/26 afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

The current pattern of snow that we’re in winds down on Friday with a weak low pressure moving over our patrol zone.  American, Canadian, and European Models are all calling for 2”, and the WRF model is calling for 4”. The highs on Saturday look to be around twenty with clearing skies, and the highs on Sunday look to be around thirty and sunny.  More light snow next Tuesday/Wednesday.  Here are the model solutions: 3” – Canadian Model 2” – European Model 1” – American Model I’ll try to do a better retrospective discussion after this week is over, but we’re already at 5”, so a bit above most model solutions for the week, and it isn’t over yet. Cheers. -Jordan (Thursday 2/9/26 afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

Although most of the snow will be to our west, we should get some spillover snow on Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly assisted with a jet streak.  Here are the model forecasts: 8” – WRF Model 4” – Canadian and European Models 3” – American Model A touch of snow, around an inch, is forecasted for Friday night.  Saturday the highs will be in the upper teens with decreasing clouds and Sunday will be sunny with highs above thirty.  Gazing into forecast fairyland, the European Model sees a storm on the horizon on Wednesday February 26, but that prediction is just too far out to be what is classically defined as “reliable,” i.e., more likely to happen than the historical average of the day.  I raise it only to give us all hope. Retrospective Discussion: Eldora picked up 1 ½” towards the end of last week.  So, initially the American Model did the best with the European Model being too optimistic and the Canadian Model predicting the snow too early.  Right beforehand, the American and Canadian Model were more-or-less accurate with the European Model being still too optimistic. Cheers. -Jordan (Monday 2/16/26 evening)  Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

A little snow before the weekend (2” per American and Canadian Model, 3” per European Model).  As for the weekend, there’ll be decreasing clouds on Saturday and sunny on Sunday.  Saturday highs will be around freezing, with Sunday warmer. Next week a hopefully slightly more significant snow will fall out over much of the week into next weekend.  Here are the model forecasts: 6” – American Model 5” – Canadian Model 3” – European Model Cheers. -Jordan (Thursday 2/12/26 morning)  Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.