Jordan’s FR Forecast

There should be some small lingering snow to start the week (along with very cold), with temperatures not becoming seasonable again until Friday.  Friday’s seasonable temperatures, however, will be short lived.  Temperatures look to dive again this upcoming weekend, with another round of snow.  Don’t put much stock into the snow forecast for this weekend yet, as it’s a really odd system, coming almost from the due north and then creating a closed low initially to our west before moving eastward.  That said, here are the model forecasts for this upcoming weekend’s snow: 11” – Canadian Model 9” – European Model 6” – UK Met Model 4” – American and Icon Models Fingers’ crossed the Canadian Model gets it right again. Retrospective Discussion: The Eldora Snowcam showed 12” from this past system, so the Canadian, RDPS, and WRF Models did a great job predicting this cold storm.  The UK Met, American, and Icon Models were too low, and the European and NAM Models were way too low. Cheers. -Jordan (Monday 1/20 Morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

It’s time to grab your skis and break out your arctic gear.  With a powerful system coming in from the north, it’s going to be a cold (highs around zero) and snowy (6-12”) weekend.  Let’s talk snow first, and then temperatures. Snow starts Friday evening and ends in earnest midday on Saturday, with another inch or two falling through Monday.  Here are the model forecasts of the weekend snow totals, which are fairly consistent: 12” – Canadian Model 11” – WRF and RDPS Models 9” – UKMet Model 8” – American and Icon Models 6” – European and NAM Models As for temperatures, here are the numbers from the Canadian and American Models, respectively: Saturday high: 3 degrees; 5 degrees Sunday high: 5 degrees; 10 degrees Coldest temperature (which will be Monday night): -14 degrees; -6 degrees Stay warm, and enjoy the fresh powder! -Jordan (Friday 1/17/25 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

This weekend, a large trough passes mostly to our north (with a low pressure moving over North Dakota and Minnesota) – but some moisture will get as far south as our backcountry patrol zone and looks to stick around through early next week.  Temperatures will be cold and winds, especially at on Saturday, will likely be strong.  5” – UK Met and Icon Models 3” – European Model 2” – Canadian Model 1” – American Model (and WRF Model through mid-day Sunday) The next snow looks to come in around Saturday January 18, with the Canadian Model calling for 2” and the American Model calling for 1”. Retrospective Discussion: The Eldora Snowcam showed 3” by midday Thursday.  This beat the European, WRF, and Icon predictions.  And it really beat the American, Canadian, and UK Met Model solutions. Cheers.  -Jordan (Thursday afternoon 1/9/25) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

Tuesday night to Wednesday afternoon will provide a quick respite from snow (boo!), but then a system from the WNW looks to bring some more snow by midday Thursday.  Here are the model forecasts: 2” – European, WRF, and Icon Models 1” – Canadian, UK Met, and American Models Thursday afternoon and Friday look to be sunny, with the next storm coming in on Saturday.  That storm looks to be long lasting and cold (especially on Sunday), but not that snowy.  Here are the model snow forecasts for Saturday to Monday: 3” – Icon Model 2” – Canadian, UK Met, and European Models 1” – American Model Retrospective Discussion: The Eldora Snowcam showed 3” new on Monday morning and 2” new on Tuesday morning, so the Icon Model nailed the forecast, with UK Met, European, and WRF all being close enough.  The American and Canadian Models were a bit low.  Cheers. -Jordan (Tuesday 1/7/25 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

Friday and Saturday morning look to be sunny and warm, before the next system moves in Saturday afternoon.  This next system is coming from the west.  It may (or may not) be mostly to our north, may (or may not) have a low pressure that brings a touch of upslope, and may (or may not) get a bit of help from a jet streak.  How’s that for unpredictability?  So, as usual, let me just report what the models are predicting snow-wise (from Saturday to Tuesday) , and I’ll let them take the credit or blame for the accuracy of predictions.  That said, surprisingly, they have a pretty consistent forecast: 6” – UK Met Model 5” – Icon Model 4” – European and WRF Models (WRF only through Monday morning) 3” – American and Canadian Models Fingers crossed for more snow. Retrospective Discussion: As of 9 am on Thursday, Eldora’s Snowstake Cam showed 11”.  Yeah!  All models underpredicted this storm, with the UK Met being the closest, then WRF, then Icon.  The European Model did rather poorly, and the American and Canadian Models were abysmal.  Always great to get more than predicted, and let’s hope the same pattern plays out for the storm starting on Sunday. -Jordan (Thursday (1/2) morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.