Jordan’s FR Forecast

A little snow before the weekend (2” per American and Canadian Model, 3” per European Model).  As for the weekend, there’ll be decreasing clouds on Saturday and sunny on Sunday.  Saturday highs will be around freezing, with Sunday warmer. Next week a hopefully slightly more significant snow will fall out over much of the week into next weekend.  Here are the model forecasts: 6” – American Model 5” – Canadian Model 3” – European Model Cheers. -Jordan (Thursday 2/12/26 morning)  Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

A weak system from the west looks to bring snow this week, but the models can’t agree on when.  Per the Canadian Model, it’s a touch of snow (1”) on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Per the European Model, it’s a bit of snow (4”) on Wednesday to Friday.  And the American Model is saying Thursday with 2”.    This weekend looks to be mostly sunny with Saturday fairly warm (low to mid 30s), and Sunday even warmer (maybe over 40).  And as it’s our backcountry patrol zone, I’m sure it’ll be windy, regardless of what the models predict. Cheers. -Jordan (Sunday 2/8/26 evening)  Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

We’ll be under a ridge of high pressure until next week Tuesday.  This weekend will be mostly sunny, highs in the upper 30s or lower 40s. Next week there looks to be a shot of snow on Tuesday to Thursday.  Between the two, here are the model forecasts: 4” – Canadian and European Models 3” – American Model Retrospective Discussion: The three models I checked for Tuesday night each had a 1/2” of snow, but 2” of snow fell.  We’ll take it! Cheers. -Jordan (Wednesday evening 2/4/26 time) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

The calendar says February, but it continues to feel like mid-November.  A quick shot of snow from the northwest looks to hit our backcountry patrol zone on Tuesday.  The American, Canadian, and European Models are all calling for ½” of snow. This upcoming weekend looks warm and sunny (with the Canadian Model calling for highs in the mid-30s and the American Model calling for highs in the upper-40s). Next Tuesday to Thursday may bring some light snow (the European Model is calling for an inch) – but that’s a long way off to trust any forecast.  It’s been a rough season so far – I skied Cannon, NH on Saturday, which has received twice the snow so far this season than Eldora.  What gives?  At least let’s not forget Winter 2002-2003, which was almost as bad until March, and then became one of the best seasons in the last three decades.  So, a turnaround of this season is still possible.  Cheers. -Jordan (Sunday evening 2/1/26)

A system from the north-northwest moves to the east of our patrol zone bringing light snow from Wednesday to Saturday.  Here are the model solutions for snowfall for that system: 2” – Canadian and European Models 1” – American Model The light snow looks to end on Saturday.  Of the weekend days, Sunday looks likelier to be the sunny one, and both days should have highs in the low 30s and the usual backcountry patrol zone breeze. Gazing into forecast fairyland, the next (albeit light) snow looks to be around Tuesday February 3. Retrospective Discussion: Eldora got approximately 4” of snow over the three-day period, so all models I checked beforehand (American, European, Canadian, and WRF) were pretty close except for the Peaks Model, which was too high.  The European Model and Canadian Model did the best on snow timing. Cheers.  -Jordan (Thursday 1/22/26 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.