Jordan’s FR Forecast

Light snow today (i.e. Friday), with the WRF Model calling for 4”, the Canadian Model calling for 2”, and the American Model calling for 1”. This weekend looks to be sunny and beautiful, with highs Saturday around freezing, and the highs Sunday above freezing.  Windier on Sunday than Saturday.  All-in-all, a beautiful weekend to get out and enjoy the fresh snow. The next shot of snow is perhaps around Tuesday/Wednesday, with the Canadian Model calling for 2”, but the American Model doesn’t think we’ll get any snow then. Late next week, the next storm might arrive, with the Canadian Model calling for 4” and the American Model calling for only 1”.  We’ll see. I’ll wait to Tuesday’s forecast to do a full retrospective discussion on this last week, as it’s still snowing lightly as I write this. Cheers. -Jordan (Friday 3/7/25 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

Short forecast owing to my schedule.  Lots of moisture from the Pacific means we’ll be getting at least some snow over the rest of the week.  From Wednesday to Friday, the WRF Model is calling for 3”, the Canadian Model is calling for 9”, and the American Model is calling for 10”. The snow dies down on Friday afternoon per the Canadian Model (or Saturday morning per the American Model), so this weekend looks to be sunny.  Highs this weekend look to be around freezing.  Should be a good weekend to enjoy the new snow. Just a note – as it’s still snowing as I’m writing this, I can’t really draft a retrospective discussion for the Monday/Tuesday system yet. Cheers. -Jordan (Tuesday 3/4/25 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

We’re looking at a beautiful weekend ahead (if you consider beautiful to be bluebird and warm and not puking snow) with highs around 40s.  Saturday should be sunny and Sunday should be mostly sunny.  And, if you believe it, maybe not too much wind this weekend. Then, a storm hits us on Monday (probably?), and I am thoroughly confused by it.  As such, I’m just going to say what the models are predicting snow-wise and not try to explain the storm. The American and Canadian Model are both calling for 8” of snow between Monday afternoon and Tuesday morning.  The Canadian Model has the snow continuing from Tuesday to Friday, with a total of 5”, while the American Model has a lull from Tuesday morning to Thursday afternoon, and then predicts 3” on Thursday and Friday. The European and Ikon Models don’t see snow starting in earnest until after midnight on Monday evening and tapering off Tuesday night, with a total of 5” of snow.  Then the European Model is calling for 6” more by Friday while the UK Met Model is calling for 7” more by Friday. Cheers. -Jordan (Friday 2/28/25 afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

In general, weather will be boring for the next six days.  A small system passes to our north on Tuesday, with the Canadian and WRF Models calling for an inch and the American Model calling for a dusting.  This weekend looks to be sunny and very warm (with highs in the 40s).  And, if you can believe it, the American and Canadian Models agree that there will be little wind this weekend.  Huh.  At the edge of forecast fairyland, a series of low pressure systems look to pass early next week.  From next Monday (3/3) to Wednesday (3/5), the Canadian Model is calling for 6” and the American Model is calling for 2”. Cheers. -Jordan (Monday morning 2/24/25) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

After an amazing week of snow, boring conditions look to predominate for the foreseeable future.  Highs look to hover right around freezing on both Saturday and Sunday (and through much of next week).  Mostly sunny both weekend days with our typical patrol zone westerly “breeze,” with perhaps even more of a “breeze” on Sunday.  A system passes to our north on Tuesday, which may provide a touch of snow (1” per the American Model and a dusting per the Canadian Model).  After that, no snow looking forward until forecast fairyland.  Frankly, there’s more to talk about looking backwards than forwards. Retrospective Discussion: Where to begin?  I guess, just with the numbers.  Eldora got 9” new by Friday morning, 1” new by Wednesday morning, 12” new by Tuesday morning, and 2” new by Monday morning, for a whopping total of two feet on the nose for the week!  Well before the stormy week, the Icon and UK Met Models predicted the storm spot-on (calling for 24” and 23” respectively).  The Canadian and European Models predicted half the storm, and the American Model predicted less than a third of the stormy week totals. Once the stormy week had already started, Icon and UK Met Models were a bit low but respectable, the WRF Model predicted half total, the Canadian and European Models predicted less than a third of the total, and the American Model predicted a fifth of the total.  An interesting pattern seems to be emerging this year, where the German Icon and the British UK Met Models have been doing a pretty good job, while the American Model has been doing awful. Go out and enjoy the new snow! -Jordan (Friday 2/21/25 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.