Jordan’s FR Forecast

A bit more of this unprecedented heat – and please be careful out there as the snowpack faces a heat it usually doesn’t face until May – but then there may be a light at the end of the tunnel.  This weekend is mostly sunny with highs in the upper 50s in our patrol zone. Then, around Wednesday April 1 the weather looks to change for the better with cooler temperatures and hopefully some snow.  Here are the model forecasts for the snow on Wednesday April 1: 5” – European and American Models 2” – Canadian Model And here are the model forecasts for snow between April 2 and 4: 8” – European Model 1” – Canadian and American Models Fingers’ crossed for an end to this awful weather.  Cheers. -Jordan (Thursday 3/26/26 Morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

The absurd heat looks to continue through Thursday.  Temperatures drop a bit on Friday (potentially with a bit of snow), but then the awful heat returns for this upcoming weekend. For the Friday cooldown – the American Model is forecasting 5” of snow, the Canadian forecast is calling for a touch of rain, and the European Model isn’t calling for anything.  I wish I had better news, but I don’t.  Watch out for wet slab danger. -Jordan (Sunday 3/22/26 afternoon)

The crummy weather continues with highs pushing 60 degrees or higher tomorrow and Saturday, and pushing 50 degrees on Sunday.  Saturday will be sunny, and Sunday will be party cloudy or sunny, depending upon which model you look at.  The next hope for snow is on Thursday March 26.  A storm from the west northwest may (or may not) hit our patrol zone, with a weak low pressure generating some snow.  The Canadian Model is calling for 7”, while the American Model is calling for ½”, and the European Model is only calling for a dusting. Fingers crossed for more snow. -Jordan (Thursday 3/19/26 afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

We have a warm week ahead of us, unfortunately.  Maybe an inch of snow on Monday.  Then, temperatures look to go above freezing starting on Tuesday, and may stay above freezing until Sunday night.  Boo! Saturday looks extraordinarily warm (maybe highs around 60) and sunny.  Weather looks to change around Sunday with cooler temperatures, increasing clouds ahead of what may be some new snow around Monday March 23.   The Canadian Model is the most optimistic for this snowfall a week away, calling for 10”, the European Model is calling for 2”, and the American Model is calling for ¾” of rain (let’s hope that won’t happen)! Retrospective Discussion: The solid March (in an otherwise awful year) continued to impress over the weekend.  Eldora picked up approximately 7” of snow in this last storm, slightly ahead of the Canadian and Peaks model,  and way ahead of the American, European, and WRF Models. Cheers. -Jordan (Sunday 3/15/26 Afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

This will be a weekend of contrasts.  Saturday looks to be warm, sunny (in the morning), and windy.  Sunday looks to be cool, snowy, and less windy (but still windy).  The snow on Sunday looks to be powered by a jet streak – so it will be rather unpredictable.  Here are the model forecasts: 6” – Canadian Model 5” – Peaks Model 3” – American and WRF Models 2” – European Model Snow lingers through Tuesday, but only another inch at best.  After that, it looks like a warm week ahead.  Retrospective Discussion: While this has been the worst winter overall since I moved to Colorado in 1996, March at least has started fairly strong.  Fingers’ crossed it keeps up.  The midweek storm dropped 7” at Eldora.  That’s pretty good, considering the Canadian Model predicted an inch, and the American, European, and WRF Models just called for a dusting.  Cheers. -Jordan (Thursday 3/12/26 Afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.