Jordan’s FR Forecast

A complicated system looks to hit our backcountry patrol zone on Friday / Saturday.  One part of it is coming from the north bringing cold and moisture, another part coming from the southwest bringing moisture but maybe not far enough, and a weak low pressure may form over the mountains as well (i.e. it’s too confusing to me).  Here are the model forecasts and timing of snowing: 8” – Peaks Model (midday Friday to Sunday afternoon) 5” – Canadian Model (Friday night to Sunday afternoon) 5” – WRF Model (midday Friday to Sunday morning) 4” – European Model (Friday night to Sunday afternoon) 3” – American Model (midday Friday to midday Saturday) Saturday looks to be cold, and Sunday looks to be really cold with highs below 10 degrees.  Sunday looks to be windier than Saturday. Next shot of snow may be around Thursday January 29 or so. With my travels, I can’t really write a retrospective on the last storm, but it was great (8”) and unpredicted. Cheers.  -Jordan (Thursday 1/22/26 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

A system from the north northwest looks to go to our east on Friday into Saturday morning, which may bring a touch of snow.  Here are the model forecasts: 2” – Canadian Model ½” – American, WRF, and European Models Saturday skies should be clearing from the system as the day progresses, with highs around 20.  Sunday looks to be clear and warmer with highs around or above 30.  The usual winds both days.  There may be a dusting of snow on Monday, with the next possible but not great chance for snow looks to be around January 23.  Cheers. -Jordan (Thursday 1/15/25 Morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

A system from the southwest looks likely to go a bit too far south to solidly hit our patrol zone on Thursday (but should bring some much needed moisture to the San Juans, Sangres, etc.).  Likewise, a system from the west northwest looks to head towards our patrol zone around Friday, but it looks to be mostly spillover.  Here are the model solutions from total snowfall from both systems: 10” – American and UK Met Models 6” – WRF and Icon Models 3” – European Model 2” – Canadian Model This weekend looks to be partly cloudy, with highs in the 20s on Saturday and in the 30s on Sunday.  Saturday looks to be windier, but it’s our patrol zone, so it’s always windy.  Retrospective Discussion: Bad news then good news.  The snow late last week disappointed with only ½”, so the American and European Models were spot on, and the Canadian and WRF Models were too high.  The snow last night, however, overdelivered, which is great.  6” fell on the Eldora Snow Cam Snow Stake, much more than the Canadian Model predicted, and a dozen times more than the American and European Model predictions. I’ll be travelling for a bit, so apologies that it’ll be a bit until my next forecast.  Cheers. -Jordan (Tuesday 1/6/26 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

Happy New Year!  There’ll be a bit of spillover snow on Thursday afternoon to Friday morning.  Here are the model forecasts: 2” – Canadian and WRF Models ½” – American and European Models This weekend looks to be mostly sunny with some high clouds, with highs in the mid to upper 30s.  Sunday looks to be the windier day, but it’s our patrol zone, so there’ll be winds on Saturday too.  There may be a shot of snow on Monday or Tuesday.  Here are the model solutions: 2” – Canadian Model ½” – American and European Models There may be other small snowfalls later next week too. -Jordan (Thursday 1/1/26 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

We’re under a ridge of high pressure this week, so weather for the first half of this week will be boring, with slowly warming temperatures and lots of sun.  Then, a system comes in from the southwest late Wednesday bringing some clouds for the rest of the week, but the snow mostly peters out before it reaches our patrol zone.  Snow, if we get any, is likely to fall between Thursday evening and Saturday, and here are the model forecasts: 1” – Canadian and European Models 1/3” – American Model The weekend looks to be a mix of sun and clouds, with light snow, the typical winds, and highs somewhere between freezing and the low 40s (depending upon the model solution).  Early next week a storm from the west looks to reach our patrol zone, but it also looks to be mostly dissipated by the time it makes it to our patrol zone.  Here are the model solutions for snow from Monday to Wednesday of next week: 3” – Canadian Model 2” – European Model 1” – American Model Retrospective Discussion: Finally, some snow!  Eldora picked up about 6”, and looking at the crazy storm numbers (Winter Park got a foot while A-Basin got an inch), most of the snow must have been fueled by the jet streak.  Two days beforehand, the Canadian, Icon, and WRF Models were spot-on, while the American and European Models predicted 2/3 of what we got, and the UK Met, Nam, and RDPS models predicted only half of what we got.  Five days beforehand, the Canadian Model was at least predicting it somewhat, predicting half of what we got, while the European and American Models had only been predicting an inch.  Let’s hope the forecasts I wrote about above similarly are way underestimating the upcoming snow. Cheers. -Jordan (Monday 12/29 Morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.