Jordan’s FR Forecast

With our patrol season over, after this, I’m only going to forecast moving forwards when interesting things happen.  Warmer temperatures return this week.  Friday we may get some new snow (5” per the American Model but only 1” per the Canadian Model).  Then, in what is basically forecast fairyland, the Canadian and American Models are both calling for 3” of snow next Tuesday.  Retrospective Discussion: Eldora picked up 13” of snow in the most recent system.  So, the day before the system started, the Icon Model was spot-on, the WRF Model was way too high, The American, European, and NAM Models were a bit low, the RDPS Model was way too low, and the Canadian and UK Met Models were just embarrassing, calling for a mere 4”.  Five days before the system started, The American, European, and UK Met Models all did a decent job predicting the storm, with the Icon Model a bit low, and the Canadian Model way too low.  Ironically, five days out the mean solution was actually closer to what we got than one day out. Cheers. -Jordan (Sunday 4/20/25 morning)

Ahh, the joys of forecasting low pressure systems in the springtime in our patrol zone (a/k/a who the heck knows how much snow we’ll get).  Two rounds of closed lows mean upslope snows on Friday with a touch more on Saturday, and then maybe snow on Sunday too.  Or maybe not.  The details are still very much up in the air (no pun intended).  I’d repeat what you’ve often read from me how these are storms are unpredictable, but I don’t need to do that when you see the various model solutions, below.  Here are the model solutions for the Friday/Saturday storm: 20” – WRF Model 13” – Icon Model 10” – American, European, and NAM Models 7” – RDPS Model 4” – Canadian and UK Met Models And here are the model solutions for snow on Sunday: 3” – Canadian Model 0” – American, Icon, UK Met, and European Models Regardless of the snowfall amounts, temperatures look to be colder than is seasonal for Friday and Saturday.  Sunday should be a bit warmer, but still comparatively cold.  And then, if you believe the Canadian Model, we’ll get 13” of snow this upcoming Thursday and Friday, and if you believe the American Model, we’ll get 0.1”.  Don’t shoot the messenger when it comes to these forecasts, all I’m doing is reporting on what the world’s most sophisticated weather models predict.  (Some darn butterfly must be flapping its wings again in Brazil.) Cheers. -Jordan (Thursday 4/17/25 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

This week looks to be warm and sunny through Thursday.  Then, we have a classic springtime cut-off low that may impact the front range including our patrol zone.  These are sometimes huge snow producers with their upslope winds, and these are sometimes huge disappointments.  So, take the various model solutions, especially this far out, with a giant gain of salt.  In other words, two feet or two inches could still very much be possibilities.  With that caveat, here are the current model solutions for our patrol zone: 15” – UK Met Model 12” – American and European Models 9” – Icon Model 6” – Canadian Model Best guess is that most fall snow will fall on Friday leading to the best turns on Saturday morning, but good chance Sunday morning will be great too.  And probably lower elevations and further north in our patrol zone will get more snow.  But this is all just guesswork at this point.  Fingers crossed for snow.  Retrospective Discussion: While the Wednesday model runs weren’t predicting any snow for Sunday night, by the Friday model runs they were, and Eldora picked up 3” on Sunday night.  The American Model was a hair too low, the Canadian Model was a bit too high, the WRF Model really dropped the ball predicting nothing.  Cheers. -Jordan (Monday 4/14/25 Morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

Spring continues for the foreseeable future.  Highs on Saturday look to be in the fifties with the usual westerly breeze.  Temperatures turn “colder” on Sunday with highs in the 40s, the usual westerly breeze, and with a slight chance for light rain or a dusting of snow.  The next chance for real snow isn’t in the foreseeable future. Also, a quick note on spring avalanche danger.  Despite the CAIC’s low rating so far this week, there was a large avalanche in the Current Creek Cirque at Berthoud Pass on Tuesday and numerous small slides all around Berthoud.  Years ago, I compared Berthoud Snotel Data with the typical springtime wet slab avalanche in the Apron of High Trail Cliffs, and the avalanches always happened when the SWE started to rapidly decrease at the Berthoud Snotel.  My rule of thumb is to always be wary of avalanches at the beginning of the Spring runoff.  Don’t worry, things will consolidate, it just takes time.  Until then, please be careful. Cheers. -Jordan (Thursday 4/10/25 morning)

It just turned into Spring, so it’s that time for our thoughts to turn to sunscreen, short sleeves, and wet slab avalanche danger.  By almost all historical precedence, we’ll certainly be getting more snow this year, but it’ll be warm for a while until snow restarts.  Highs through Thursdays look to be in the 40s, and then highs look to get into the 50s Friday through Sunday.  The next real chance for snow is around the edge of forecast fairyland, on Tuesday April 15.  That said, maybe there’ll be a dusting of snow this Wednesday. Retrospective Discussion: Eldora picked up about 5” by Friday morning, so the WRF Model was very close.  The Canadian Model was a bit low.  And the American, Icon, European, UK Met, NAM, and RDPS Models were all too low.  Eldora then picked up around 3” by Saturday morning, so the RDPS Model was spot on, and the Canadian, Icon, and NAM Models were close.  The American, WRF, and UK Met Models were all too high, and the European Model was too low.  So, to back up to the beginning of the very snow week, Eldora picked up approximately 29” in total.  So, right before the snowy week, overall the European Model called it closest with forecasting 26”, then the American Model forecasting  22”, and finally the Canadian Model forecasting 18”.  Cheers. -Jordan (Monday 4/7/25 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.