Jordan’s FR Forecast

It just turned into Spring, so it’s that time for our thoughts to turn to sunscreen, short sleeves, and wet slab avalanche danger.  By almost all historical precedence, we’ll certainly be getting more snow this year, but it’ll be warm for a while until snow restarts.  Highs through Thursdays look to be in the 40s, and then highs look to get into the 50s Friday through Sunday.  The next real chance for snow is around the edge of forecast fairyland, on Tuesday April 15.  That said, maybe there’ll be a dusting of snow this Wednesday. Retrospective Discussion: Eldora picked up about 5” by Friday morning, so the WRF Model was very close.  The Canadian Model was a bit low.  And the American, Icon, European, UK Met, NAM, and RDPS Models were all too low.  Eldora then picked up around 3” by Saturday morning, so the RDPS Model was spot on, and the Canadian, Icon, and NAM Models were close.  The American, WRF, and UK Met Models were all too high, and the European Model was too low.  So, to back up to the beginning of the very snow week, Eldora picked up approximately 29” in total.  So, right before the snowy week, overall the European Model called it closest with forecasting 26”, then the American Model forecasting  22”, and finally the Canadian Model forecasting 18”.  Cheers. -Jordan (Monday 4/7/25 morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

Sorry all that this forecast is a little early, but dealing with time constraints.  By the time you read this, we’ll know how the Thursday system played out. A large low pressure system looks to give us two rounds of upslope, the first one on Thursday and the second one on Friday into Saturday.  There’s a good chance there’ll be more snow east of the Peak-to-Peak Highway than in our patrol zone to the west of the Peak-to-Peak Highway.  Regardless, here are the model solutions in our patrol zone for the Thursday system: 6” – WRF Model 3” – Canadian Model 2” – American, Icon, European, UK Met, NAM, and RDPS Models Here are the model solutions for the Friday/Saturday system: 7” – American Model 6” – WRF and UK Met Models 3” – RDPS Model 2” – Canadian, Icon, and NAM Models 1” – European Model Saturday should be snowing, mostly cloudy, with a high in the mid-20s.  Sunday should be partly cloudy with a high around freezing, and winds increasing as the day progresses.  Next week looks to return to warmth and sun. Retrospective Discussion: Eldora picked up about 5” in the Tuesday-ish storm, so both the WRF and European Models were pretty close, with the American Model being too low, and the Canadian Model being way too low. Cheers. -Jordan (Wednesday 4/2/25 evening) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

Snow continues.  The next round of snow is Monday to Tuesday evening.  Here are the model forecasts: 6” – WRF Model 4” – European Model 2” – American Model 1” – Canadian Model Temperatures cool significantly on Wednesday through the rest of the week.  The next round of snow appears to be on Thursday, which looks to be an upslope.  Please keep in mind, these upslopes are rather unpredictable.  Here are the model forecasts, but don’t discount the possibility that we get much less or much much more: 4” – European Model 3” – Canadian and American Models There looks to be a brief lull on Friday, and then the next snowfall on Friday afternoon to Saturday night.  This, likewise, is another upslope, and may hit the plains more than the mountains, but same caveats on unpredictability.  Here are the model forecasts: 5” – European Model 4” – Canadian Model 3” – American Model Clouds appear to exit our region by Sunday, with warming temperatures. Retrospective Discussion: What a weekend of snow!  Eldora picked up 9” over Friday night, and 7” over Saturday night.  For the first round, the American Model was a bit low, but in the ballpark.  The RDPS and Canadian Models were lower.  And the NAM and WRF Model predictions were just embarrassing, predicting 1” and a dusting, respectively.  On the second round, the American Model hit it dead on, the Canadian and RDPS Models were low, and the WRF and NAM Models were really low. Cheers. -Jordan (Monday 3/31/25 Morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

After a week of warmth and sun, weather is about to change.  There will likely be a series of storms hitting our patrol zone from now until forecast fairyland.  None of these storms look too big, but the overall accumulations look to be a foot and a half or more over the next nine days.  Here are the details.  The first round looks to be tonight to tomorrow morning.  Here are model forecasts: 7” – American Model 6” – RDPS Model 5” – Canadian Model 1” – NAM Model Dusting – WRF Model Saturday’s highs should top out around 40.  The second round of snow looks to be Saturday night through the end of the day on Sunday.  Here are the model forecasts: 5” – American Model 3” – Canadian and RDPS Models 2” – WRF Model 1” – NAM Model Sundays highs should top out around 30. After a lull on Monday with warmer temperatures, the next system, which is colder looks to be on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Here are the model forecasts: 4” – Canadian Model 2” – American Model Then, it looks like there’ll be another system, possibly an upslope, from Thursday to Saturday.  Here are the model forecasts: 7” – American Model 6” – Canadian Model So, the totals predicted between now and next Sunday are: 26” – European Model 22” – American Model 18” – Canadian Model Welcome back winter. -Jordan (Friday 3/28/25 afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

This week looks to be warm and mostly sunny, with highs potentially hitting or exceeding 50 on Wednesday.  Yikes.  The weather pattern looks to change around Saturday.  The Canadian Model is calling for a few weak storms from Saturday to Monday, with 5” total.  The American Model is calling for one snowfall on Saturday evening of 3”.  Obviously, in my end of week forecast, I’ll dive into more details when the models have a better sense of our likely weather. Retrospective Discussion: Eldora picked up around 7” over the weekend.  All snow helps! Cheers. -Jordan (Monday 3/24 Morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.