Jordan’s FR Forecast

On Wednesday a storm mostly to our north will result in some spillover snow in our patrol zone and lots of wind.  Here are the model forecasts for Wednesday’s snow: 5” – Canadian Model 3” – American Model 2” – European and WRF Models There may be lingering snow showers on Thursday and Friday with continued very high winds. With a jet streak above, there’s always a chance for upside potential, but we’re likely looking at an inch or less.    The winds then look to slow to their normal windiness by the weekend.  Saturday looks to be fairly warm with increasing clouds, and then on Sunday (or Monday per the American Model), a similar (but slightly less windy) system will spillover into our patrol zone.  Here are the model forecasts for Sunday’s (or Monday’s) snow: 5” – American Model 4” – European Model 3” – Canadian Model Gazing into forecast fairyland, the next chance of snow may be around Christmas Day.  Cheers. -Jordan (Monday 12/15/25 Morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

(My apologies that the last few weather posts were not online, but only circulated in the Tuesday / Friday Calls, but it looks like I’m able to post again online too.) We’re sitting under a ridge of high pressure, so will be waiting on some snow for a while.  Both weekend days are warm, with Saturday being sunnier and windier, and Sunday being partly cloudy and even warmer (around 40 degrees). Next chance of snow looks to be this upcoming Wednesday.  Here are the model forecasts for that snow: 4” – Canadian Model 1” – European Model 0” – American Model Then, perhaps more snow next Friday and/or Sunday? Retrospective Discussion: The midweek snow resulted in 1”, a result between the WRF models and the other models. Cheers. -Jordan (Thursday 12/11/25 Morning) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

With the May 6-7 storm just finished, I think it’s time to write a season wrap-up.  So, here goes: How did the Models Perform this Year?                 Like all of the prior years’ analysis with the ten million caveats I won’t bore you with again, I did the math, and we have a new winner of the best model.  It’s the German Icon Model.  The WRF Model was unsurprisingly the second most reliable, and the UK Met was the third most reliable.  The usually dependable Canadian Model did awful this year.  And once again, the NAM Model did so poorly, I’m not sure why I even include its solutions in my forecasts.  How did I come up with this assessment? For predicting the right amount of snow, the Icon and WRF Models did the best job, followed by the UK Met and European Models.  The American Model came in fifth, NAM and RDPS were next, with the Canadian Model dead last.  Canada, what happened this year?  For not being wildly off in snow predictions, Icon was easily the best, being wildly off either high or low less than a quarter of the time.  The UK Met, WRF, RDPS, European, and Canadian were all only wildly off about a third of the time.  The American Model was wildly off half the time, and the NAM Model was wildly off two thirds of the time.  Wow – if we set aside the WRF Model, this is not a good showing for America. And the mode forecasts by the Icon and WRF Models were most often correct, while the mode forecasts by the American, Canadian, and NAM Models was way too low.  And overall, all eight models I frequently looked at tended to underpredict as opposed to overpredict storms. How was the ski season?                 There’s an old saying that Colorado almost always has average snow years, while California almost never has average snow years – in California all years are way lower or way higher than average.  And once again, we had a pretty average year here.  For whatever reason, February was much better than normal, and April was worse than normal.  May is off to a great start (2.2” of SWE at the Lake Eldora Snotel).  Overall, we had a number of great storms, but an unfortunately warm spring until this past week.  Here is the season graphically from the Lake Eldora Snotel, with green being average and black being this year.                  Anyhow, I hope everyone enjoyed these forecasts, and I hope you have a wonderful summer of skiing on Colorado’s permanent snowfields until it starts snowing again in the fall. -Jordan (Thursday 5/8/25) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

Even though our patrol season is done for the winter, it looks like we’re going to have a wintry week next week.  A large closed low pressure system looks to (hopefully) bring a lot of springtime moisture to our front range patrol zone.  The wind direction is forecasted to be predominantly from the east, not the west, for the first half of next week.  This is always a good sign.  Between Monday May 5 and Wednesday May 7 (with the exception of the UK Met Model as discussed below), here are the various model snow forecasts: 19” – European Model 14” – Canadian Model 13” – UK Met Model 10” – American Model 7” – Icon Model The UK Met Model sees a different scenario, with snow continuing into the morning of Friday May 9, and the number above is its prediction for the entire week.  Fingers’ crossed this comes in as predicted or more!  And, considering that the temperatures will just barely be below freezing, this will be great base building snow for our late spring / early summer ski season! -Jordan (Friday 5/2/25 afternoon) Geeky Notes: References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

With our patrol season over, after this, I’m only going to forecast moving forwards when interesting things happen.  Warmer temperatures return this week.  Friday we may get some new snow (5” per the American Model but only 1” per the Canadian Model).  Then, in what is basically forecast fairyland, the Canadian and American Models are both calling for 3” of snow next Tuesday.  Retrospective Discussion: Eldora picked up 13” of snow in the most recent system.  So, the day before the system started, the Icon Model was spot-on, the WRF Model was way too high, The American, European, and NAM Models were a bit low, the RDPS Model was way too low, and the Canadian and UK Met Models were just embarrassing, calling for a mere 4”.  Five days before the system started, The American, European, and UK Met Models all did a decent job predicting the storm, with the Icon Model a bit low, and the Canadian Model way too low.  Ironically, five days out the mean solution was actually closer to what we got than one day out. Cheers. -Jordan (Sunday 4/20/25 morning)