We’re under a ridge of high pressure this week, so weather for the first half of this week will be boring, with slowly warming temperatures and lots of sun. Then, a system comes in from the southwest late Wednesday bringing some clouds for the rest of the week, but the snow mostly peters out before it reaches our patrol zone. Snow, if we get any, is likely to fall between Thursday evening and Saturday, and here are the model forecasts:
1” – Canadian and European Models
1/3” – American Model
The weekend looks to be a mix of sun and clouds, with light snow, the typical winds, and highs somewhere between freezing and the low 40s (depending upon the model solution).
Early next week a storm from the west looks to reach our patrol zone, but it also looks to be mostly dissipated by the time it makes it to our patrol zone. Here are the model solutions for snow from Monday to Wednesday of next week:
3” – Canadian Model
2” – European Model
1” – American Model
Retrospective Discussion:
Finally, some snow! Eldora picked up about 6”, and looking at the crazy storm numbers (Winter Park got a foot while A-Basin got an inch), most of the snow must have been fueled by the jet streak. Two days beforehand, the Canadian, Icon, and WRF Models were spot-on, while the American and European Models predicted 2/3 of what we got, and the UK Met, Nam, and RDPS models predicted only half of what we got. Five days beforehand, the Canadian Model was at least predicting it somewhat, predicting half of what we got, while the European and American Models had only been predicting an inch. Let’s hope the forecasts I wrote about above similarly are way underestimating the upcoming snow.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Monday 12/29 Morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
