As our backcountry patrol season winds down, happily, there’s actually some interesting weather to write about.
First, a weak low-pressure system from the west southwest looks to bring snow to our patrol zone Tuesday midday to Wednesday midday. Here are the model forecasts:
6” – Canadian and WRF Models
4” – European and American Models
3” – Icon and UK Met Models
Then, a colder system from the west northwest looks to bring snow on Friday. Here are the model forecasts:
11” – UK Met Model
7” – Canadian Model
5” – European Model
4” – Icon Model
1” – American Model
Saturday will be relatively cold, with the high below freezing. Sunday looks to return to more warmth and sun. And because it’s our patrol zone, both weekend days will likely be at least somewhat windy.
Retrospective Discussion:
Just flakes on Saturday, so the Canadian Model was way too optimistic, and the American, European, and Peaks Models were sadly accurate. And considering the skies are mostly blue over the mountains right now, I’m going to go ahead and guess that the American, Canadian, and Peaks models calling for snow today was too optimistic, and the European Model sadly was accurate predicting no snow.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Monday 4/13/26 morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
