Warm days, but at least close to freezing (or freezing) nights for much of this week. The European and American models are each calling for less than an inch of snow during the week, and the Canadian Model isn’t calling for any snow.
Then, for this weekend, the temperatures remain similar, but a disorganized system moves in from the west southwest on Saturday, with possible weak upslope. The Canadian Model is predicting 4”, while the European and American Models are not predicting snow. Then, on Monday, in the second wave of the same system, both the American and Canadian Models are calling for 2”, while the European Model isn’t calling for anything.
Retrospective Discussion:
While some other places in Colorado picked up a foot plus in the last two systems, sadly we got skunked, with 1” of snow on Wednesday and 1” of snow on Friday. So, a week out, the Canadian Model was close on the first system, and the American and Canadian Models were close on the second system, while the European Model was too optimistic on the first system and way too optimistic on the second system. Half a week out, the UK Met and Canadian Models were too optimistic on the first system, the European and Icon Models were close, and the American and Peaks Models were right on. On the second system, the American Model was spot on, the UK Met, Peaks, and European Models were too high, the Icon Model was way too high, and the Canadian Model was silly high. And, once the first system arrived, the American, WRF, and Peaks Models were right on, and the Canadian and European Models were too high on the first system – and the second system the Canadian, American, and European Models were right on, the Peaks Model was a bit high, and the WRF Model was too high.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Sunday 4/5/26 evening)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
