A system from the southwest looks likely to go a bit too far south to solidly hit our patrol zone on Thursday (but should bring some much needed moisture to the San Juans, Sangres, etc.). Likewise, a system from the west northwest looks to head towards our patrol zone around Friday, but it looks to be mostly spillover. Here are the model solutions from total snowfall from both systems:
10” – American and UK Met Models
6” – WRF and Icon Models
3” – European Model
2” – Canadian Model
This weekend looks to be partly cloudy, with highs in the 20s on Saturday and in the 30s on Sunday. Saturday looks to be windier, but it’s our patrol zone, so it’s always windy.
Retrospective Discussion:
Bad news then good news. The snow late last week disappointed with only ½”, so the American and European Models were spot on, and the Canadian and WRF Models were too high. The snow last night, however, overdelivered, which is great. 6” fell on the Eldora Snow Cam Snow Stake, much more than the Canadian Model predicted, and a dozen times more than the American and European Model predictions.
I’ll be travelling for a bit, so apologies that it’ll be a bit until my next forecast. Cheers.
-Jordan (Tuesday 1/6/26 morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF IFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the Icon and UKMet Models are to the point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
