Ahh, the joys of forecasting low pressure systems in the springtime in our patrol zone (a/k/a who the heck knows how much snow we’ll get). Two rounds of closed lows mean upslope snows on Friday with a touch more on Saturday, and then maybe snow on Sunday too. Or maybe not. The details are still very much up in the air (no pun intended).
I’d repeat what you’ve often read from me how these are storms are unpredictable, but I don’t need to do that when you see the various model solutions, below. Here are the model solutions for the Friday/Saturday storm:
20” – WRF Model
13” – Icon Model
10” – American, European, and NAM Models
7” – RDPS Model
4” – Canadian and UK Met Models
And here are the model solutions for snow on Sunday:
3” – Canadian Model
0” – American, Icon, UK Met, and European Models
Regardless of the snowfall amounts, temperatures look to be colder than is seasonal for Friday and Saturday. Sunday should be a bit warmer, but still comparatively cold. And then, if you believe the Canadian Model, we’ll get 13” of snow this upcoming Thursday and Friday, and if you believe the American Model, we’ll get 0.1”. Don’t shoot the messenger when it comes to these forecasts, all I’m doing is reporting on what the world’s most sophisticated weather models predict. (Some darn butterfly must be flapping its wings again in Brazil.)
Cheers.
-Jordan (Thursday 4/17/25 morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
