It just turned into Spring, so it’s that time for our thoughts to turn to sunscreen, short sleeves, and wet slab avalanche danger. By almost all historical precedence, we’ll certainly be getting more snow this year, but it’ll be warm for a while until snow restarts.
Highs through Thursdays look to be in the 40s, and then highs look to get into the 50s Friday through Sunday. The next real chance for snow is around the edge of forecast fairyland, on Tuesday April 15. That said, maybe there’ll be a dusting of snow this Wednesday.
Retrospective Discussion:
Eldora picked up about 5” by Friday morning, so the WRF Model was very close. The Canadian Model was a bit low. And the American, Icon, European, UK Met, NAM, and RDPS Models were all too low. Eldora then picked up around 3” by Saturday morning, so the RDPS Model was spot on, and the Canadian, Icon, and NAM Models were close. The American, WRF, and UK Met Models were all too high, and the European Model was too low. So, to back up to the beginning of the very snow week, Eldora picked up approximately 29” in total. So, right before the snowy week, overall the European Model called it closest with forecasting 26”, then the American Model forecasting 22”, and finally the Canadian Model forecasting 18”.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Monday 4/7/25 morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
