After an amazing week of snow, boring conditions look to predominate for the foreseeable future. Highs look to hover right around freezing on both Saturday and Sunday (and through much of next week). Mostly sunny both weekend days with our typical patrol zone westerly “breeze,” with perhaps even more of a “breeze” on Sunday.
A system passes to our north on Tuesday, which may provide a touch of snow (1” per the American Model and a dusting per the Canadian Model). After that, no snow looking forward until forecast fairyland. Frankly, there’s more to talk about looking backwards than forwards.
Retrospective Discussion:
Where to begin? I guess, just with the numbers. Eldora got 9” new by Friday morning, 1” new by Wednesday morning, 12” new by Tuesday morning, and 2” new by Monday morning, for a whopping total of two feet on the nose for the week!
Well before the stormy week, the Icon and UK Met Models predicted the storm spot-on (calling for 24” and 23” respectively). The Canadian and European Models predicted half the storm, and the American Model predicted less than a third of the stormy week totals.
Once the stormy week had already started, Icon and UK Met Models were a bit low but respectable, the WRF Model predicted half total, the Canadian and European Models predicted less than a third of the total, and the American Model predicted a fifth of the total.
An interesting pattern seems to be emerging this year, where the German Icon and the British UK Met Models have been doing a pretty good job, while the American Model has been doing awful.
Go out and enjoy the new snow!
-Jordan (Friday 2/21/25 morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
