We’ll get a little snow today (2” per the Canadian Model, ½” per the American Model). Saturday will be cloudy. Sunday morning may be sunny, but snow looks to start in earnest Sunday afternoon, with higher winds on Sunday than Saturday.
Then we’re going to get steady snowfall from Sunday to Wednesday or Thursday. It’ll be predominantly spillover – so the higher and westerly elevations in our patrol zone will likely get a ton of snow while the lower and easterly elevations in our patrol zone will likely not get too much. The exact location of the spillover strength partially explains the discrepancies in the below model solutions. Here are the various model solutions for total snow during that period:
24” – Icon Model
23” – UK Met Model
12” – Canadian and European Models
7” – American Model
Retrospective Discussion:
Unfortunately, Eldora only picked up 2” of snow earlier this week, so the Icon Model was too high, and the American, Canadian, European, and UK Met Models were all way too high.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Friday (2/14/25) afternoon)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
