Lots to talk about. The first round of snow this week looks to come in on Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, with a weak upslope, and very cold temperatures. Here are the model forecasts:
6” – European and UK Met Models
5” – Canadian and American Models
4” – Icon Model
Temperatures warm on Thursday and Friday, but then a strong system from the west looks to hit us on Friday through Sunday, but our patrol zone will mostly just be in the spillover. Here are the model forecasts:
8” – Icon Model
7” – UK Met Model
6” – European Model
4” – Canadian Model
3” – American Model
Highs both weekend days look to be in the mid-twenties, with the usual winds.
Then, early next week looks to have more snow (and perhaps another upslope). Here are the model forecasts (Monday to Wednesday of next week):
5” – Canadian and American Models
3” – European Model
Fingers’ Crossed for a Snowy Week!
Retrospective Discussion:
If you’re going to be wrong, at least underpredict snow! Eldora picked up (probably) 9” over the weekend, so all of the models underpredicted the storm. And, with slightly more snow on Saturday night than Friday night, not a single model called the timing correctly. That said, the WRF and UK Met Models only somewhat underpredicted, while the European and Icon Models significantly underpredicted, and the American and Canadian Models laughably only called for 1”.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Monday 2/10/25 morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
