The moisture from the storm that just hit Tahoe will pass us (mostly to the north and west) on Friday evening, though there will be a powerful jet streak overhead. The models are all over the place on snow forecasts (my guess is they can’t agree whether the jet streak will bring snow or not). Here are the various model forecasts for the snow in our patrol zone from this evening to Saturday evening:
7” – WRF Model
6” – UK Met Model
4” – European Model
3” – Icon Model
1” – Canadian and American Models
This weekend looks to have typical westerly winds with highs getting close to thirty each day.
Early next week, one system from the northwest and one system from the southwest look to collide roughly over Colorado, with some upslope potential. Here are the Monday to Wednesday model snow forecasts for our patrol zone:
9” – European Model
7” – Canadian Model
5” – American Model
3” – UK Met Model
2” – Icon Model
And a quick note for those that will be out at the Level 2 Avalanche class at Sunlight. The American Model is calling for 2” for the weekend snow, the Canadian Model is calling for 1” and the WRF Model isn’t calling for anything. The WRF Model is calling for more winds than the American or Canadian Models, with its solution that there will be westerly winds of 10 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Retrospective Discussion:
No real snow to speak of on Wednesday evening, so the American and NAM Models got it right, the Canadian and RDPS Models were a bit too optimistic, and the WRF Model was way too optimistic.
-Jordan (Friday 2/7/25 morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
