A low pressure system currently over southern California passes to our south on Wednesday and Thursday, with the American Model calling for an inch, and the Canadian Model calling for a dusting or less.
After that, per the American and Canadian Models, a ridge of high pressure takes over, with that or zonal flow (but no moisture) for the foreseeable future, with the next system well to our north. Boo! I hate nice weather.
If you believe the American, Canadian, and British (i.e., the UKMet) Models, this weekend looks mostly sunny, with highs in the 30s, and with the typical front range patrol zone breeze.
However, the continental European based models provide a bit more hope for snow, but their reasoning disagrees. The European Model says we may get 4” of snow from a storm to our north on Sunday. The Icon Model says we’ll get 7” of snow from a storm to our south on Sunday. So, maybe there’s hope for some snow, but clearly the models haven’t figured out what will be happening yet this weekend.
Retrospective Discussion:
Sadly, the Eldora snowcam only showed 4-5” fresh from the last system, coming in on the low end of the predictions. So, the American, European, and Icon Models called it right, the Canadian, NAM, and UKMet Models were a bit high, and the RDPS Model was way too optimistic.
-Jordan (Monday 1/27/25 morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.