Friday and Saturday morning look to be sunny and warm, before the next system moves in Saturday afternoon. This next system is coming from the west. It may (or may not) be mostly to our north, may (or may not) have a low pressure that brings a touch of upslope, and may (or may not) get a bit of help from a jet streak. How’s that for unpredictability? So, as usual, let me just report what the models are predicting snow-wise (from Saturday to Tuesday) , and I’ll let them take the credit or blame for the accuracy of predictions. That said, surprisingly, they have a pretty consistent forecast:
6” – UK Met Model
5” – Icon Model
4” – European and WRF Models (WRF only through Monday morning)
3” – American and Canadian Models
Fingers crossed for more snow.
Retrospective Discussion:
As of 9 am on Thursday, Eldora’s Snowstake Cam showed 11”. Yeah! All models underpredicted this storm, with the UK Met being the closest, then WRF, then Icon. The European Model did rather poorly, and the American and Canadian Models were abysmal. Always great to get more than predicted, and let’s hope the same pattern plays out for the storm starting on Sunday.
-Jordan (Thursday (1/2) morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
