Following up on a lot of snow last week (we’ll ignore the fact that most of it was blown to Kansas from the winds), we have another decent round of snow on Wednesday into Thursday. Here are the various snow forecasts:
8” – UK Met Model
7” – WRF Model
6” – Icon Model
4” – European Model
2” – Canadian Model
1” – American Model
There may be some flurries for the rest of the week, with Saturday being the warmest day, but then things get interesting on Sunday.
Starting Sunday, there may be a major trough, and potentially some upslope, but the models have a lot of disagreement. Here are the various snow forecasts from Sunday to Tuesday:
7” – Canadian Model
6” – Icon Model
4” – European Model
1” – American Model
Fingers crossed for snow!
Retrospective Discussion:
It’s been a great week, with 1” new as of Saturday morning, 4” new as of Sunday morning, and 3” new as of Monday morning, with another inch by noon Monday. The American, Canadian, and WRF Models all did a good job on the Saturday snow. The American and Canadian Models blew the Sunday snow calling for way too little while the WRF Model called it right. As for the Sunday night/Monday snowfall, the American Model was way too low, the Canadian was a bit too low, and the WRF was a bit too high.
-Jordan (Monday (12/30) afternoon)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
