This weekend looks to be mostly sunny and warm, with more wind on Sunday than Saturday.
Next week, there are a series of small systems resulting in a touch of snow forecasted on Monday, Wednesday (Christmas Day), Friday, and Saturday. The total through Saturday midnight from these systems is predicted to be:
4” – Canadian Model
2” – European Model
1” – American Model
Gazing into forecast fairyland, maybe more snow to come around the New Years, but that’s pretty far out to be guessing at.
Retrospective Discussion:
Happily, Tuesday’s system tracked further south than predicted, and as such all the models way underpredicted Tuesday’s snow. Eldora picked up about 8”, while the most optimistic model I checked, the RDPS Model, only predicted 3”, with the American, Canadian, and WRF Models predicting 2”, and the NAM Model only predicting 1”. Always nice to get much more snow than predicted, though of course the wildly wrong forecast reminded me of that old joke that meteorology makes astrology look like a hard science.
Cheers, and happy holidays!
-Jordan (Thursday 12/19/24 afternoon)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
