Welcome to the first forecast of the 2024-2025 season. To quickly orient us to the status of current conditions, October was below average, November was above average, and the start of December looks below average. As of this morning, the three Snotel sites in our patrol zone were all just slightly below average for the season thus far, at 86%, 84%, and 82% of average.
This week looks to be mild, and sunny, with relatively low winds until Thursday or Friday compared to normal. Then, winds may pick up, but temperatures look relatively mild through Sunday.
On Sunday, the Canadian Model is calling for 5” of snow and then colder temperatures to start next week. The American Model puts off snow until Monday, forecasting 8” with a more significant upslope. Too early to tell which solution is more likely to be correct, but I’ll take a deeper dive into this system and the model predictions in my next forecast at the end of this week.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Monday 12/2/24 morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
