After a warm week, we have a snowy, windy, and cooler weekend in store. The American Model is calling for 4” and the Canadian Model is calling for 7” over the weekend.
Then we’ll have more snow on Monday evening – 1” per the Canadian Model and 3” per the American Model. Both the American Model and Canadian Model are saying there might be at least some chance for a break between the clouds on Monday long enough for the partial eclipse in our neck of the woods.
Then, somewhere between 1” (American Model) and 5” (Canadian Model on Tuesday and Wednesday.
For those of you travelling for the eclipse (the one legitimate reason to not ski this weekend), the low-pressure system that will cause the weekend snow for us looks to be centered near the Minnesota/Iowa border around the time of the eclipse. This will be pulling clouds and/or moisture from the Gulf into Eastern Texas, Arkansas, and Ohio during or right after the eclipse. Less moisture in between those locations along the line of totality (Southern Illinois and Indiana) if the storm keeps the speed currently predicted by the American Model. Areas to the northeast of that along the line of totality (New York and New England) also look to have less potential clouds/moisture. However, the speed of the system will make all the difference, so who knows yet. Here are some point specific forecasts:
Dallas – 24% cloud cover per the Canadian Model. The American Model says 100% high level cloud cover and 0% low and medium level cloud cover.
Cleveland – 0% cloud cover per the Canadian Model. The American Model says 0% high level cloud cover, 8% medium level cloud cover, and 97% low cloud cover.
Vermont – 22% cloud cover per the Canadian Model. The American Model says 0% high level cloud cover, 0% medium level cloud cover, and 41% low cloud cover.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Thursday 4/4/24 afternoon)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
