We have a warm week ahead, with another low pressure system and cooler temperatures this weekend. Here are the current predictions for the weekend storm (through Monday morning):
8” – Canadian Model
6” – American Model
5” – UK Met Model
4” – Icon Model
2” – European Model
Both the American and Canadian Models are calling for clouds during the partial eclipse on Monday in our area. Fingers’ crossed for no clouds in the more important line of the totality.
The American Model has more snow in store for us next week (over a foot), while the Canadian Model does not.
Retrospective Discussion:
The Friday system produced 1-2 inches, so the WRF Model got it right, and the American and Canadian Models predicted too much. The Monday system produced only a dusting, so the Canadian Model was too high, and the American Model was way too high.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Tuesday 4/2/24 morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
