Temperatures slowly climb this week into this weekend.  We’ll likely see a touch of snow on Thursday, but probably less than an inch. 

This weekend will likely be sunny, warm, and somewhat windy. 

Things really don’t get interesting weather wise until April Fool’s Day.  At that point we may see another low pressure system hitting our patrol zone.  Again.  Fingers’ crossed, as it’s hard to trust a forecast that is this far out.  That said, as of now, the models are optimistic, with the American Model calling for 15”, and the Canadian Model calling for 12”. 

Retrospective Discussion:

Eldora picked up 10-11 inches in this most recent low pressure system, so the American Model was spot on, with the WRF way overpredicting the storm and the Canadian Model way underpredicting the storm.


-Jordan (Monday 3/25/24 evening)

Geeky Notes:

References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.