Looks like we’re in for a major storm from Wednesday afternoon to Friday morning.  Details are still fuzzy, but basically we have a large cut-off low to our southeast that will produce an upslope with the potential for very large snow totals in our patrol zone.  I would emphasize the word “potential” as several models are still predicting lower snowfall totals and/or that that the upslope will not be strong enough to impact our patrol zone, only our drive to our patrol zone.   In any event, here are the various model solutions for the storm:

38” – WRF Model

29” – American Model

28” – WRF (Non Hi-Res) Model

24” – RDPS Model

20” – NAM Model

19” – European Model

15” – UK Met Model

10” – Icon Model

8” – Canadian and NCEP NAM Models

So, it’s looking like one to two feet, with the possibilities of three feet if things go well or half a foot if things do not. 

This weekend looks to be partly cloudy, with a little snow Sunday afternoon (1” per the Canadian Model and 3” per the American Model).


-Jordan (Tuesday 3/12/24 morning)

Geeky Notes:

References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.