We have a decent upslope storm later this week, but the details are still not at all clear. The first wave of snow may start Tuesday evening, but the upslope looks to start in earnest on Wednesday. The storm should be winding down by Thursday evening. Here are the various model solutions, which are still differing wildly:
25” – American Model
21” – UK Met Model
14” – Icon Model
13” – European Model
8” – Canadian Model
I rarely read other forecasts discussions before sending out my forecasts, but considering the uncertainty and potential size of this storm, I read the National Weather Service forecast discussion of this storm. Often that helps with uncertainty to see what the professionals are saying. However, the professionals can’t make solid predictions yet either. So sorry, all I can do is report on the radically different model solutions for now, and we’ll see what happens.
This weekend looks to be partly cloudy, with a little snow Sunday afternoon (1” per the Canadian Model and 3” per the American Model).
Cheers.
-Jordan (Monday 3/11/24 afternoon)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
