We have a sunny weekend coming up after today’s snow. Enjoy the pow! Sunday should be warmer but also windier.
Then, from Wednesday to Friday, we may get a massive upslope storm, or we may get a regular old storm. Here are the current model forecasts:
33” – Icon Model
32” – American Model
14” – European Model
11” – Canadian Model
10” – UK Met Model
Considering this storm is still 5-7 days away, there’s nothing unusual about this sort of disagreement between the models. And I’m more keeping an eye on it at this point then getting excited. There’ll be plenty of time to get excited about it when it gets closer and we can see whether it looks more like three feet or a foot or less.
Retrospective Discussion:
Eldora’s webcam showed roughly 8” of snow from this past storm. So the WRF Model was closest, just a little high, with the Icon Model too low, the American Model even lower, and the European, UK Met, and Canadian Models way too low.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Friday 3/8/24 afternoon)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
