It’ll be a pleasant (but typical wind) weekend, with highs around 30 degrees, and a fair amount of sun. 

Monday through Wednesday will have snow, but the details are still unclear.  A complicated storm is headed our way after the weekend.  It combines a system from the southwest and a system from the northwest, with the possibility of a low, and a possibility of a jet streak.  As I’m sure you can imagine, it’s hard to predict how this will play out.  Here are the model forecasts:

7” – Canadian and European Models

3” – American Model

Fingers crossed we get good snow next week.

Retrospective Discussion:

Eldora picked up 1-2” of new snow, so the American Model was on the money, and the Canadian and European Models were a bit too high.

-Jordan (Thursday 2/22/23 Morning)

Geeky Notes:

References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.