The Eldora Snow Cam shows as of this (Friday) morning that we’ve picked up 6” over the last few days, more than expected.  It’s great.  The storm continues today.  Here are the various model forecasts from 6 am Friday to Saturday morning:

8” – WRF Model

7” – Canadian Model

5” – American and European Model

4” – NAM Model

3” – RDPS Model

The sun should come out by Saturday afternoon with highs in the 20s, and Sunday will be partly cloudy with highs around 30, and perhaps a dusting to one inch of new snow in the afternoon.

A system from our west may or may not produce more snow in our patrol zone around perhaps next Thursday.  Here are the current model forecasts for that system:

8” – Canadian Model

2” – European Model

Dusting – American Model


Retrospective Discussion:

As noted above, we’ve gotten 6” so far this week, which is better than the two most optimistic models at the beginning of the week, the Canadian and RDPS, which both predicted 4”.  The other models (American, UK Met, European, NAM, and WRF) all called for an inch or less, and so (happily) got this forecast completely wrong. 

-Jordan (Friday 2/16/24 morning)

Geeky Notes:

References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.