Looks like we’ll have some light snow tomorrow and Thursday.  Here are the model snow forecasts:

4” – Canadian and RDPS Models

1” – American, UK Met, and European Models

Dusting – NAM and WRF Models

Then, a storm coming in from the west looks to provide a little more snow on Friday.  A weak upslope will hopefully develop.  This storm is on the edge of the short term models, and there’s lots of uncertainty between them (i.e., RDPS is bullish, NAM and WRF are not).  Of the medium term models that predict the entire storm, here are the model snow forecasts:

8” – Canadian Model

4” – American Model

3” – European Model

2” – UK Met Model

After this storm passes, conditions look to be partially to mostly sunny.  Sunday looks to be relatively warm.  Typical westerly winds look likely both weekend days. 

Next week we may have snow and a lot of wind around Monday (1” per the Canadian Model and a dusting per the American Model), and then another shot of snow around perhaps Thursday February 22.


-Jordan (Tuesday 2/13/24 Afternoon)

Geeky Notes:

References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.