It’ll be a snowy weekend, but the details are still unclear. A very powerful closed low, which looks to be in southeast Colorado by Friday afternoon, will bring moisture from both the Pacific Ocean (first) and the Gulf of Mexico (second) into Colorado. This is your classic low pressure / upslope. However, there will be no jet streak component (as the very powerful jet streak will be far to our south). And, the exact timing, shape, and location of the low will make all the difference. Here are the model snow forecasts for the storm (Friday to Sunday):
9” – Canadian and European Models
8” – NAM Model
6” – WRF Model
5” – RDPS Model
4” – American and UK Met Models
Assuming you’re reading this forecast in the Friday Call, check out the Eldora snowstake webcam, and you’ll already start to have an idea of what’s happening with the first part of this storm.
Early next week looks to be sunnier and warmer, with the next system perhaps coming in around Wednesday (per the American and European Models but not the Canadian Model).
Fingers’ crossed we get a good dump this weekend.
-Jordan (Thursday 2/1/24 Morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
