As we revel in the over 4½ feet of snow we’ve gotten in the last week and a half, we have a break from the snowy weather.  Boo.  Saturday the highs should get into the mid-thirties, and Sunday highs may reach 30.  Both days look to be partly cloudy, with slightly more wind on Sunday.

We may get a touch of snow on Sunday or Monday, but unlikely to be more than an inch.  The next shot of snow on the horizon starts next Thursday, but looks fairly minor so far. 

Retrospective Discussion:

Eldora picked up 7” in the most recent storm, so the WRF Model did a great job, only an inch off, the Canadian and NAM Models were too low, and the RDPS and American Models were way too low.


-Jordan (Thursday 1/18/24 afternoon)

Geeky Notes:

References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.