Hold onto your ski helmets, we’re in for a storm!
A stream of moisture from the west northwest from Friday morning to Monday afternoon will produce snow in our part of Colorado. For our patrol zone, the first part of the storm will be mostly spillover, but then there will be a jet streak assisting snowfall from late Friday to Saturday. Also, there might be a small amount of upslope at the end of the storm on Monday. Here are the model forecasts for the total storm:
19” – Canadian Model
14” – European Model
12” – UK Met Model
11” – American Model
Beyond the snow, it will be windy, particularly on Saturday. And then the temperature will drop on Monday and Tuesday, with the low Monday night at perhaps -20 degrees. The sun looks to finally peak out on Tuesday.
The next system comes in Wednesday to Thursday per the Canadian Model, or Thursday and Friday per the American Model. The Canadian Model is calling for 3” in that system and the American Model is calling for 5”.
Here comes the snow! (Just be safe out there with the new snow and strong winds.)
Retrospective Discussion:
So far this week, through this morning, Eldora has picked up 6” of snow. I’ll do a comparison to predictions in my next forecast.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Thursday 1/11/24 afternoon)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
