Sorry for the early and short forecast. A series of storms look to come in from the northwest in quick succession from this Tuesday night through next Monday evening with consistent snowfall. Here are the model forecasts for that time period.
17” – Canadian Model
12” – European Model
10” – American Model
Let’s just not get too excited, as most of the snow will be generated by spillover effect, which isn’t always the most reliable snow generator for our patrol zone, but at least there’s a chance that the jet streak will line up favorably later this week (which is a big snow generator for our patrol zone). Fingers’ crossed for snow!
Retrospective Discussion:
Between the last three systems, Eldora’s snow-stake cam showed a total of 5”, so the Canadian Model was closest (predicting 3”), then the American Model (predicting 2”), with the worst prediction of the models I checked being the WRF Model (predicting 1”).
Cheers.
-Jordan (Monday 1/8/24 morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
