Currently there’s a little snow falling from a low pressure to our south, followed by light snow from the northwest on Friday, a quick break on Saturday, and then a low pressure to our south driving more snow on Monday. When you combine the three systems, the models are forecasting the following total snow:
3” – Canadian Model
2” – American Model
1” – WRF Model
What does this mean for weekend weather? It’ll be partly to mostly cloudy with the only possibility of sun between the systems. Highs this weekend will be cold (highs in the teens in our patrol zone, and likely ten degrees colder than our patrol zone on the other side of the divide where our avalanche class is taking place). Saturday looks like it will be windy with winds from the western half of the compass. The effects of the low pressure system to the south looks to block much of the winds on Sunday, so likely only light winds, partially from the eastern half of the compass on Sunday.
Then there looks to be a complex storm coming in on Wednesday and Thursday in several waives with both northwest and easterly winds. The American Model is calling for 3” and the Canadian Model is calling for 6”.
Then, potentially more snow next weekend. It’s great to be talking about snow again in these forecasts.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Thursday (1/4/24) Evening)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
