While there’s not a lot of snow in the forecast, there is at least a little, and any snow is welcomed news. There are four upcoming snow potential producers, though all of them look small based upon the current models.
First, on Thursday into Saturday morning, a low pressure system passes to our south, which will result in a little snow. Here are the model forecasts:
2” – Canadian, American, and European Models
Second, this system is followed, almost immediately, by a weak system from the northwest that looks to give us perhaps a small shot of snow on Saturday. That said, the systems are so close, the above numbers represent both systems.
In our patrol zone, this weekend looks to be partly cloudy, with highs in the upper teens. The Canadian Model is saying moderate westerly winds both days, while the American Model is calling for moderate westerly winds on Saturday but almost no wind on Sunday.
For this weekend’s avalanche class, it looks like there’ll be a bit more snow at the Jones/Berthoud region (4” of new snow per the Canadian and American Models at Jones Pass, and 3” of new snow at Berthoud Pass), but with slightly colder temperatures (low teens as the highs) than in our patrol zone, and with Saturday as the windier day.
Third, a slightly stronger low pressure system moves in from the west northwest sometime between Sunday evening and next Tuesday, with a low currently forecasted to be to our south, but may result in a bit more snow. Here
3” – American and European Models
2” – Canadian Model
Fourth, the Canadian Model has a system coming in on Wednesday into Thursday of next week producing 2” of snow per the Canadian and European Models and 1” of snow per the American Model.
Happy New Year!
-Jordan (Tuesday 1/2/24 Morning)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
