Apologies for a very boring forecast.  As the low pressure slowly moves to the east, we’re in for a ridge of high pressure all week, and there’s no snow on the horizon for the rest of 2023.  If there’s any consolation, starting Wednesday the models are calling for below average winds in our patrol zone.  Next possibility of snow looks to be perhaps January 3.  Until then we’ll just have to make do with the little snow we do have (the three Snotels in our patrol zone are currently reading 85%, 75%, and 56% of average).

Retrospective Discussion:

Roughly 4” of new snow fell on the December 23-24 system.  The American and European Models were pretty close, with the WRF Model too low, NAM and UK Met Models too high, the Canadian and RDPS Models way too high.

Cheers, and happy holidays!

-Jordan (Monday (12/25/23) afternoon)

Geeky Notes:

References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’.  References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area.  For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface. 

If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books.  How is that for an absolutely shameless plug?  Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts.  Cheers.