Quick forecast owing to my travels. A large low pressure that is currently halfway between the Aleutian Islands and California heads south over the Pacific until its center is just south of the American/Mexican border near San Diego, and then it slowly climbs northwards as it travels west eventually ending up in Southern Colorado on December 23. This system looks to bring some much needed snow to our patrol zone, but as always with low pressure systems, they’re rather unpredictable. Here are the various model snow forecasts for the system (December 23-25). Looks like Monday (Christmas Day) will probably be the best powder day, with Christmas Eve a close second.
6” – European Model
5” – American and Canadian Models
2” – UK Met Model
Saturday looks to be significantly warmer than Sunday, with similar winds both days.
-Jordan (Tuesday 12/19/23 Morning)
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.