Nothing interesting in the forecast until close to Christmas, so I’ll keep this short. Sunny weekend, with winds slightly higher on Saturday than Sunday. The first possibility for snow is on December 21 – with a large low pressure off the west coast, that low may send a small shot of snow out to the east (or it may not). The Canadian Model is calling for an inch on December 21, while the American and European Models are not calling for snow.
Then, on Christmas Eve, that low pressure system hanging out on the west coast (mentioned above) actually moves inland. The European Model has it going too far south, but the Canadian and American Models have at least some of this system hitting us. Here are the various model snow predictions:
3” – Canadian Model
1” – American Model
0” – European Model
Fingers crossed for more snow. Happy holidays everyone!
-Jordan (Friday 12/15 afternoon)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
