Not much snow in the forecast. A large but weak low pressure slowly moving from Arizona to southeast Colorado looks to be pulling moisture northerly from the Gulf of Mexico towards our patrol zone. However, it doesn’t look like it will pull the moisture quite far enough, so we’ll only be getting a mild upslope on Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Taos will be a likely winner. We will not. Here are the model snow forecasts for our patrol zone:
1” – European and NAM Models
½” – Canadian and RDPS Models
Trace – American, UK Met, WRF Models
Thursday to Sunday look to be sunny and dry. Boo!
Some clouds early next week, but no new snow. The next snow on the horizon looks to come in around perhaps Wednesday December 20 per the Canadian Model (but not the American or European Models, which do not call for any snow through December 21).
Fingers crossed these model solutions are wrong, and we start getting a lot more snow.
Retrospective Discussion:
The Friday/Saturday system resulted in 4” of snow (per the Eldora Snowstake Webcam). So, the WRF and UK Met Models were spot on. The European, Canadian, and RDPS Models were too low, and the NAM and American Models were way too low.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Monday 12/11/23 Afternoon)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
