After a warm week, we’ll get some light snow on Friday, and maybe some light snow on Tuesday. Let’s start with Friday’s storm. A fast moving system from the west looks to drop a bit of snow in our patrol zone. By the time you’re reading this in the Friday Call, you may already know how the predictions for this storm turned out, but in any event, here are the various model snow forecasts:
4” – WRF and UK Met Models
2” – European, Canadian, RDPS Models
1” – NAM Model
½“ – American Model
Regardless, the models all basically agree that Saturday should be the colder of the two weekend days in our patrol zone, and Sunday should be the windier day. Some models see continued light snow into Saturday, while others do not.
On Tuesday, there will be a small storm from the west northwest that will likely pass to our north. The American Model has the system swinging far enough south to give us some snow, while the European Model does not. The Canadian Model splits the baby. Here are the various model snow forecasts for the Tuesday system:
3” – American Model
1” – Canadian Model
0” – European Model
After Tuesday’s system, things get weird. The various model solutions show a very unusual storm moving north northwest from the Gulf of Mexico. The model solutions don’t quite show it hitting our patrol zone, but it’s something to keep an eye as it’s bizarre. The European Model shows a storm coming to our patrol zone next Friday to Sunday from the west, the American Model does not, and yet again the Canadian Model splits the baby forecasting a touch of snow from that system. To summarize this paragraph, I have no idea at all what’s going to happen weather-wise after next Tuesday.
-Jordan (Thursday 12/7/23 Morning)
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are to the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How is that for an absolutely shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.