Well, since my last forecast (in mid-May), it has been a crazy weather late Spring through late Autumn. Late Spring and early Summer 2023 was one of the wettest I can ever recall. Then it got hot. We only got one good snowfall in October, and November has been dry. The Lake Eldora Snotel is currently only at 46% of average.
Worry not, however. There’s no correlation between early season snow and midseason snow. And, it looks like we’re about to see at least a bit of snow. Yah!
A complicated system from the west northwest looks to hit our patrol zone from Friday through Monday. It doesn’t look too big of a snow producer as the winds will be consistently from the west. Our only hope for significant snow is that a jet streak forecasted to brush overhead on Sunday overdelivers. Nevertheless, we should get some snow. Here are the various model snow forecasts:
8” – WRF Model (though Sundy evening)
6” – European Model
5” – Canadian Model
3” – American Model
It does look like it will be windy and cold during the storm.
Then, a ridge of high pressure (i.e., crappy pleasant and sunny weather) looks to dominate our weather from Tuesday through Thursday.
The next potential system, at the edge of forecast fairyland, is set to come in around next Friday (12/8) or so. Here are the model snow forecasts:
5” – European Model
1” – Canadian and American Models
Cheers.
-Jordan (Thursday 11/30/23 afternoon)
Geeky Notes:
References to the American Model are to the American (GFS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 9,439’. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model grid including Brainerd Lake with an average elevation of 10,253’. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model point forecast for Eldora Ski Area with an elevation of 9,189’. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model on a point with my cursor at my best estimate of Eldora Ski Area. For big picture overviews, I tend to rely on the American Model, not because I think it is the most accurate, but because (i) it is free and (ii) I like its interface.
If you want more details on these forecasts, feel free to buy my Hunting Powder book at Hunting Powder: A Skier’s Guide to Finding Colorado’s Best Snow: Lipp, Jordan, Gratz, Joel: 9780578838533: Amazon.com: Books. How about that for a shameless plug? Or, the next time you see me at a patrol function, just ask me any questions on how I put together these non-professional forecasts. Cheers.
