With the storm leaving, we’re going to be under a ridge of high pressure until roughly Cinco de Mayo.  Some thunderstorms and thundersnow are possible Monday May 1 to May 4.  Bear in mind that (i) models do an awful job predicting the amount of thundersnow, and (ii) some of this could come down as rain as well as snow.

Things get interesting for the possible Cinco de Mayo storm.  A large closed low over California may come over our patrol zone producing somewhat significant snow (per the Canadian Model) or just kind of peter out as it goes from California to us producing snow showers (per the American Model), or somewhere in between (per the European Model).  Here are the model forecasts for our patrol zone:

10” – Canadian Model

3” – European Model

½” – American Model

Here’s to hoping we get a good Cinco de Mayo snowstorm.

Retrospective Discussion:

Looking at the Lake Eldora Snotel SWE data (I don’t trust Snotel actual snow depth data at all), and comparing that to the Loveland Snotel SWE data and Loveland’s snow stake webcam from this same system, my best guess is that Eldora got 4” of snow out of this storm.  So the UK Met Model was dead on, with the RDPS and NAM Models pretty close.  The Canadian Model was too low.  The European Model and WRF Models were too high, and the American Model was way too high.


-Jordan (Friday (4/28/23) morning)