Well, this is the last official forecast for the patrol season, though I may post on-and-off on the website as interesting weather happens, and I’ll be sure to post a year-end retrospective on both the season and how the models did (in order to try to improve my forecasts for next season), like I do every year. Anyhow, let’s dive into the weather.
There’s a powerful closed low well to our north that will spin off a small low pressure that will move just over or south of our patrol zone tomorrow (Friday). What does this mean? We’ll get some snow Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. It probably won’t be too crazy (nothing like a closed or cut-off low), but these systems are notoriously hard for the models to predict. Here are the model forecasts:
12” – WRF Model
11” – UK Met
10” – American and RDPS Models
9” – NAM Model
7” – European Model
6” – Canadian Model
Spring returns on Sunday through Tuesday. Then things get weird.
The American Model has a large low pressure moving way to our north, while the Canadian Model has it affecting us. So, the Canadian Model is calling for 14” of snow from Wednesday through Friday, while the American Model is calling for no snow on Wednesday and Thursday and one inch of snow on Friday. Hmmm. On one hand the Canadian Model is more often correct (for our patrol zone), but on the other hand, the American Model is predicting the same weather pattern we’ve seen for a month, and the European solution is closer to the American solution than the Canadian one. So who knows. Here’s for hoping the Canadian solution is correct.
-Jordan (Thursday (4/13/23) afternoon)
You might be a Bryan Mountain Patroller if: it’s the last weekend of the patrol year, and you’re still worried about getting in your minimum number of patrol duty days.