Temperatures look to warm a bit more each day through Wednesday (4/12), where it will be so warm the lows may struggle to go below freezing at 10,000’ on Tuesday night (and perhaps Wednesday night). It’ll be mostly sunny through this period with both the American and Canadian model agreeing that there will be no clouds on Friday, Monday, and Tuesday. The American Model is calling for an inch of snow Saturday, though the European Model is calling for a dusting at most, and the Canadian Model is calling for nothing.
Out close to forecast fairyland, a closed low may funnel lots of snow into our patrol zone around Friday April 14, with the Canadian Model calling for 15”, the European Model calling for 7”, and the American Model calling for 2”. Of course, that’s far too in the future to have much reliability.
Retrospective Discussion:
That last system delivered, and then some! The Eldora snow stake camera showed 12”, a bit higher than the Canadian Model’s 10” prediction, which was the only model in the ballpark. All other models were a farce, with the RDPS and European models predicting a third of what fell, the American and WRF models predicting a quarter of what fell, and the NAM predicting a sixth.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Thursday (4/6/23) evening)
You might be a Bryan Mountain Patroller if: you keep a gas station style windshield washer station in your garage, which you need to use after every drive back from your patrol day.
