A very large closed low passes to the north of our patrol zone on Tuesday.  Why can’t one of these go to our south and truly hammer our patrol zone?  At least there should be a jet streak overhead on Tuesday which will assist with some snow.  Tuesday (and especially Wednesday) look fairly cold.  Here are the various model forecasts for the Tuesday / Wednesday system:

10” – Canadian Model

5” – RDPS Model

4” – European Model

3” – American and WRF Models

2” – NAM Model

After that, temperatures warm and the sun comes out from Thursday through Saturday.  The models disagree on whether we’ll get a touch of snow on Sunday (Canadian Model says yes, 1”, while the American and European Models aren’t calling for anything).  Other than the possible small snow on Sunday, from this Thursday onwards it looks like springtime until forecast fairyland.

Retrospective Discussion:

Eldora picked up 6” out of the Friday system, so the WRF Model, while too low, was at least in the ballpark.  The Canadian, European, and especially the American Model completely underestimated the storm.


-Jordan (Monday 4/3/23 morning)

You might be a Bryan Mountain Patroller if: your backcountry patrol pack weighs more than you do.