After a few warm days, and then two low pressures (from the west and southwest) look to head probably a bit north of our patrol zone.  They’ll be pretty weak by the time they head over our part of the Rockies, and they’re too far north, but they’ll probably still produce a little snow on Friday.  Here are the various model forecasts:

4” – Canadian Model

2” – European Model

1” – American Model

Then it looks like a pleasant weekend with highs in the low 30s and some sun.  Then, fingers crossed, early next week, a larger system moves in from the northwest with an upslope component.  The models are all over the map on timing (for example, Canadian Model says Tuesday to Thursday while the American Model says late Sunday through Tuesday) and on snow (the Canadian and American Models are optimistic and the European Model is not).  Here are the model forecasts for next week’s system:

13” – Canadian and American Models

4” – European Model

Retrospective Discussion:

Eldora reported 1” in the first system and 2” in the second system.  So, on the first system the American Model was right on the money, with the UK Met Model too low, the WRF and European Models too high, and the Canadian Model way too high.  And on the second system, the Canadian Model was right on the money while the UK Met Model, American Model, and Canadian Model were too low.


-Jordan (Tuesday (3/28) morning)

You might be a Bryan Mountain Patroller (specifically a Front Range Backcountry Patroller) if: you use more P-Tex annually than ski wax