The low pressure is spinning out of Colorado towards Kansas and Nebraska, but a little moisture remains for at most an inch or so on Friday. Another low passes to our north on Saturday which may produce a tad more snow. Here are the model forecasts for Saturday:
3” – Canadian Model
2” – WRF and European Models
1” – American Model
Trace – UK Met Model
A touch more snow looks to come in on late Sunday and Monday. Here are the model forecasts for that time period:
2” – Canadian Model
1” – American, UK Met, and European Models
Highs should only get up to about twenty both Saturday and Sunday. Then, it looks like a break in snow for most of the week (while California looks like it’s in for another hammering of snow). The remnants of the California storm looks to hit us around Friday-ish (3/31). Here are the forecasts for that system:
5” – Canadian Model
2” – European Model
1” – American Model
While we’re at roughly average for our snowpack in our patrol zone (the three Snotels in our patrol zone are at 107%, 101%, and 91% of average as of today); I’ve been in Utah for the last week where the amount of snow has been insane (the three Snotels in the Cottonwood Canyons are at 212%, 189%, and 186% of average as of today). Good for Utah, and fingers crossed our spring is as great as their winter.
Retrospective Discussion:
Eldora reported 6” of snow during this week, so in the near-term forecast the Canadian Model was spot on, with the American Model way low and the European Model way high. However, the forecast before that of the same system had the UK Met Model nearly spot-on, with the Canadian Model too high and the American and European Models too low. In hindsight, I should have checked the UK Met Model (which I only look at sometimes) in the last post to see if it was still good in the Monday forecast.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Thursday (3/23/23) evening)
You might be a Bryan Mountain Patroller if: you just got your twenty-five year patrolling pin, and you still feel that you’re one of the more junior patrollers.
