Two sets of moisture, one coming from the northwest and the other from the west southwest look to join forces on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and will bring snow to our patrol zone. There may be a bit of upslope Wednesday, with temperatures steadily dropping. Here are the various model forecasts from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening:
7” – Canadian and NAM Models
6” – European Model
5” – American, WRF, and UK Met Models
4” – RDPS Model
Remaining moisture coupled with a jet streak above may fuel a touch more snow on Thursday and Friday. The American, Canadian, and European, and UK Met Models are all predicting an inch of extra snow during this time.
Saturday looks to be warmer and partly cloudy, and then a low pressure may bring more snow on Sunday/Monday. Here are the model forecasts for Sunday/Monday:
2” – Canadian and European Models
Trace – American Model
Retrospective Discussion:
Eldora’s Snowstake Webcam showed 3” of snow in the Sunday system, so the WRF Model called it dead-on, while the Canadian and American Models were way too low predicting 1”, and the European Model’s 0” prediction was completely off. Also, another inch fell this (Monday) afternoon, which wasn’t predicted by any model as of the time of my last forecast. I’ll always take more snow than predicted.
Cheers.
-Jordan (Monday (2/20/23) evening)
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas. References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model. References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model. References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model. References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.
