Today through tomorrow looks dull – we are briefly under a ridge of high pressure (i.e., pleasant weather), which will switch to more zonal flow (i.e., typical but not snowy weather) on Saturday.  Both days will have a decent amount of sun.  Then on Sunday, there is a wildly confusing weather pattern, with moisture coming in from both the northwest and southwest, but it doesn’t look like we’ll get much snow.  Here are the model forecasts:

3” – WRF Model

1” – Canadian and American Model

0” – European Model

However, the moisture coming in from the northwest looks to intensify on Tuesday, and then a brief low pressure system develops over central Colorado that may (emphasize may) result in some real upslope on Wednesday.  This may also combine with a jet streak.  The models will really struggle to predict the exact snowfall we’ll get from this system.  The Tuesday/Wednesday model forecasts are as follows:

10” – Canadian Model

7” – European Model

6” – American Model

Retrospective Discussion:

The Monday system delivered only a dusting, so the American, European, and UK Met Models got it right, and the Canadian and WRF Models were too optimistic.  Then, the Tuesday night system delivered 2 ½ inches per the Eldora Snowstake Cam, so the Canadian and UK Met Models were on the money, while the American and European Models were a bit high, and the WRF Model was comically high.


-Jordan (Friday (2/17/23) morning

Note: Unless otherwise noted, all forecasts are for 10,000’ in exposed areas.  References to American Model are the American (GFS) Model.  References to the Canadian Model are the Canadian (GDPS) Model.  References to the WRF Model are the CAIC WRF Hi-Res Model.  References to the European Model are the European (ECMWF) Model.